Some time ago seems to be "on the right track" Evergrande, recently began to frequently negative。

                      

Restructuring plan stalled

             

On September 24, China Evergrande announced that for all new notes to be issued under the proposed restructuring, Evergrande must prove that it complies with the relevant regulations of the CSRC and the NDRC.。However, as Evergrande's subsidiary Evergrande Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Evergrande Real Estate") is under investigation, the Group's current situation cannot meet the eligibility for the issuance of new notes.。

In March this year, Evergrande announced its foreign debt restructuring plan, which is divided into Evergrande agreement arrangement, Jingcheng agreement arrangement and space-based agreement arrangement according to the main body of the bond issuance.。The total principal amount of debt involved is 191.$4.1 billion。

Under the China Evergrande agreement, creditors have two options。In the first option, creditors could receive new 10-12-year notes to be issued by the company at a conversion ratio of 1: 1 of their recoverable amount, which would repay principal and interest over time.。The second option is for creditors to choose to convert their recoverable amounts into: (1) new notes of 5-9 years to be issued by the company; (2) a combination of five equity-linked notes linked to Evergrande Property, Evergrande New Energy Automobile or the company's listed shares, including their guaranteed, linked, compulsory exchange or compulsory conversion of the corresponding shares (as applicable); or (3) a combination of the two。

In addition, under the Jing Cheng agreement, creditors will receive five new notes of 4-8 years issued by Jing Cheng; under the Space-based agreement, creditors will receive four new notes of 5-8 years issued by Space-based。

In terms of the restructuring plan, the core is the trade-in and the replacement with convertible bonds.。And now Evergrande has announced that it is unable to issue new notes at this stage, which means that Evergrande's foreign debt restructuring plan has been pressed the "pause button."。

Evergrande real estate related incidents began to appear last month。On August 16, Evergrande Real Estate issued a notice on receiving the notice of filing a case.。The announcement mentioned that due to the company's suspected information disclosure violations, in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, the CSRC decided to file a case against the company.。

According to the relevant announcement issued by Evergrande on August 31, as of the end of July 2023, Evergrande Real Estate had a total of 1,931 pending litigation cases with an amount of 30 million yuan (RMB, the same below) or more, with a total amount of approximately 4,377..4.3 billion yuan。As of the end of July, Evergrande Real Estate had accumulated approximately 2,775 outstanding debts due..01 billion yuan, overdue commercial bills accumulated about 207.5 billion yuan.。

In Evergrande's latest announcement, it did not mention what the company would do if it was unable to issue new notes.。For now, how long the "suspension period" of the restructuring plan will last will depend on the progress of Evergrande Real Estate-related cases.。

                                    

The person who needs to tie the bell to untie the bell

                            

In the second half of 2020, Evergrande's debt problems began to pay off.。Although Evergrande has been actively "self-help" by canceling dividends, property discounts and repeatedly selling assets, but due to the debt problem is too severe, the end of 2021 Evergrande finally "can not hold"。In December 2021, Evergrande asked the international rating agencies to withdraw the rating, and then its guarantee of 2..$600 million debt default。

After the default of the US dollar debt, the news of Evergrande's capital chain break is rampant, coupled with the weak sales of buildings, Evergrande's sustainable business ability has been questioned by the outside world.。

For Evergrande, all the problems now focus on the progress of its foreign debt restructuring.。Successful debt restructuring can open up the next step for the company.。Conversely, any lack of progress in the restructuring will increase market pessimism。

But since Evergrande unveiled its restructuring plan in March this year, progress has been rather rocky。

In April, the company revealed that it had not received the level of creditor support needed to implement its restructuring plan.。

At the end of July, the company stated that the High Court of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, etc., had separately directed that a meeting of creditors of each agreement arrangement be held on the Evergrande Agreement Arrangement, the Jingcheng Agreement Arrangement and the Space-based Agreement Arrangement.。A meeting on the arrangements for the three agreements is expected to be held on August 22-23.。

But these meetings have been delayed.。First, on August 16, Evergrande announced that it would postpone the above-mentioned agreement arrangement meeting to August 28.。On August 28, Evergrande again postponed the above agreement arrangement meeting to September 25-26.。

And on September 22, Evergrande directly announced the cancellation of the relevant agreement arrangement meetings on the proposed reorganization originally scheduled for September 25, 2023 (Tianji and Jingcheng) and September 26, 2023 (China Evergrande).。The announcement does not mention when the relevant meeting will be reconvened.。In response, Evergrande explained in the announcement that since the announcement of the terms of the proposed foreign debt restructuring on March 22, the Group's sales have fallen short of expectations, and based on the Company's current situation and in consultation with its advisers and creditors, the Company considers it necessary to re-examine the terms of the proposed restructuring to match the Company's objective situation and creditors' demands.。

Looking at Evergrande's announcement, the company is likely to revise its plan to restructure its foreign debt.。It's just that the last time Evergrande came up with a restructuring plan more than a year after defaulting, I don't know how long it will take for Evergrande to come up with a new restructuring plan this time.。

                  

Evergrande system falls endlessly, Xu Jiayin assets shrink

                  

Recently, under the "bombing" of a series of bad news, the three listed companies of Evergrande have been falling endlessly.。

Today (September 25) close, China Evergrande fell more than 21%, at 0.HK $43。1 before resume.HK $65 has fallen by about 74%。

Evergrande shares also weakened.。Evergrande Property closed at 0 today.HK $67, down 14.1%; Evergrande Auto closes at 0 today.7 HK dollars, down 22.22%。

Evergrande's prospects also raise big bank concerns。Last week, Citi released a research report saying that while China Evergrande continues to take measures to deal with debt and liquidity pressures, its operations could still face significant challenges given its huge liabilities, and that the company's accountants were unable to comment on its finances for 2021-2022 and its conclusions for the first half of 2023.。Therefore, Citi will maintain China Evergrande's "sell" rating and set its target price from 1..3 Hong Kong dollar falls sharply 61.5% to 0.HK $5。At the same time, Citi introduced a new forecast, the company is expected to 2023-2024 losses of 59.8 billion yuan and 20.6 billion yuan, 2025 is expected to profit 14.8.3 billion yuan。

In the case of lower stock prices, Evergrande helmsman Xu Jiayin's net worth is also facing a sharp decline。

According to the "2023 Hurun Global Rich List," Xu Jiayin is now worth about 20 billion, ranking 1,100 in the world, down 712 from last year.。

Xu Jiayin's net worth has shrunk by 92% from five years ago and by 90% from two years ago.。

In 2018, Xu Jiayin ranked 20th on the Hurun Global Rich List with a net worth of 260 billion yuan.。In 2021, Xu Jiayin will still have $204 billion in assets on the Hurun Global Rich List, ranking 50th.。

At this stage, the market pessimism about Evergrande has been very strong, when to "clear the clouds and see the light of day" also depends on Evergrande's next series of self-help measures.。