It's been less than two weeks since the Fed's September meeting, and the market is expecting the bank to suspend interest rate hikes again this month。For now, according to a dot plot released by the Fed in June, the bank will raise rates once more between September, November and December。

The market expects that the Fed may postpone its rate hike until the fourth quarter, or even, if appropriate, directly announce the end of the rate hike cycle and start the rate cut process in 2024 as the economy cools.。

The good news is that recent U.S. economic data has been able to convince some Fed officials to support the bank in keeping policy rates unchanged this month, including some aggressive hawks。On Tuesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in an interview that recent economic data has gradually shown signs of slowing inflation, buying policymakers some time to decide whether further rate hikes are needed.。

Waller's reference here is likely to be the recently released U.S. non-farm payrolls data for August and PCE inflation data for July。

Judging by recent non-farm payrolls data, the labor market, which has been a headache for the Fed, is finally showing signs of slowing down。Although in August, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States still increased by 18.70,000, more than economists had expected。However, according to the data released, the U.S. Department of Labor revised down the total number of jobs in June and July by 110,000.。At the same time, the United States in August, year-on-year hourly wage growth also fell, only 4.3%, down from 4 in July.4%。

According to statistics, non-farm payrolls growth has slowed to an average of 150,000 a month in the past three months, compared with an average of 28 in the first five months of this year..70,000。Waller said last week's non-farm payrolls data clearly showed that the U.S. labor market is starting to weaken.。

In addition, the U.S. PCE price index in July increased 3.3 per cent; the core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, was at an annual rate of 4 per cent in July..2%, in line with market expectations。Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, said: "While the specific details of the data are somewhat disappointing, it reinforces market speculation that the Fed will not change its plan to keep interest rates unchanged in September.。"

Waller said: "The data we got last week is very good, the key is that it allows us to proceed with caution.。We can sit there and wait for the data and see if the situation continues。He added: "The biggest problem is inflation, and we've had two good reports in a row.。See if this low inflation is a trend or just an outlier or a fluke。"

Notably, as a well-known hawk within the Fed, Waller had made it clear before the July FOMC meeting that he supported the Fed raising interest rates twice this year, by 25 basis points each, and believed that "this is necessary to keep inflation moving towards the Fed's goal."。At the July FOMC meeting, Waller voted for a 25 basis point rate hike。

However, Waller declined to answer the question of whether the rate hike cycle is over。He said it was too early to discuss whether to pause the rate hike: "It depends on the data.。We have to wait and see if this inflation trend continues。Keep watching, wait for the data - which is also consistent with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's tone in the face of the media.。

Currently, according to CME "Fed Watch," the Fed kept interest rates at 5 in September..25% -5.The probability of a 50% unchanged is already as high as 92%, with a 25 basis point rate hike to 5.50% -5.The probability of a 75% range is 8%; the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by November is 54.8%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike of 42.0%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 3.2%。