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Matrixport: ETF selling pressure seems to have been suspended, and hedge funds may reassess arbitrage opportunities in late March

On March 3, Matrixport analysis pointed out that since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the scale of capital outflows this month has hit a new high, which may be related to hedge funds closing out basis trading (long ETFs, short futures). This trend is consistent with the US$8 billion decrease in open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts on CME after the Federal Reserve's December 2024 FOMC meeting, which exceeds 20% of total ETF inflows. In addition, the expiration of February futures contracts may also be a source of selling pressure, but this factor has now been absorbed by the market. Matrixport believes that as the impact fades, hedge funds may reduce ETF selling and reassess arbitrage opportunities in late March. At present, ETF selling pressure seems to have temporarily stopped.

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