On Wednesday, local time, European Airbus (Airbus) bet that soaring fuel costs will prompt airlines to speed up purchases of new, more fuel-efficient aircraft。The company raised its forecast for new aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years, but lowered its forecast for global fleet growth as airlines focus on replacing more older aircraft.。

Specifically, the world's largest aircraft maker expects to deliver 40,850 aircraft over the next 29 years, up from last year's forecast of 39,490 aircraft.。Among other things, the company moved freighter deliveries from 890 to 920, which means 39,930 passenger aircraft will be delivered over the next 20 years.。Airbus said that 80% of these passenger aircraft are single-aisle jets such as the A320neo or Boeing 737MAX.。

In addition, Airbus has sharply raised its forecast for the number of older aircraft to be replaced over the next 20 years from 15,440 to 17,170.。

Bob Lange, Airbus's senior vice president of business analysis and market forecasting, said it was partly a catch-up effect after two or three years of slow aircraft retirements and the permanent retirement of parked aircraft.。

Because during the outbreak, the number of aircraft in service fell sharply, and after thousands of jets were grounded around the world, airlines are now flying older aircraft longer to compensate for supply chain problems and a sudden recovery in demand.。

Previously, Airbus expected air traffic to return to pre-epidemic levels by 2023-25, but was unable to predict the exact timing as air passenger and freight faced rising energy prices and the threat of an epidemic.。However, the company said that in either the best or worst case scenario, traffic will return to pre-epidemic levels only six months apart.。

Airbus says the global fleet will more than double to 46,560 aircraft by 2042, from 22,880 before the new crown epidemic in early 2020.。

As the number of aircraft replacements increases, Airbus forecasts that 58% of deliveries will serve fleet growth, down from a previous forecast of 60%.。The company's forecast for the fleet at the end of the forecast period is lower than the previous 46,930 as growth is expected to slow and the number of retirements will increase.。

However, it is worth noting that the topic of increased aircraft deliveries is a sensitive one for the airline industry, as environmental groups question whether the airline's expansion can be reconciled with the industry's environmental goals.。

For its part, Airbus said the delivery of new, energy-efficient aircraft would make a significant contribution to reducing emissions, along with alternative fuels and leaner operations.。

Airbus said its figures were based on 3.medium-term scenario of 6 per cent traffic growth, which could face the adverse effects of environmental regulation and energy supply, or further liberalization and a "more stable world order."。

Airbus also said in its forecast that Asia, led by India and China, has the strongest growth, and India remains the world's fastest growing market.。

It is reported that the current growth rate of the aviation market will be mainly contributed by the Indian market, Airbus expects the Indian market in the next 20 years, the average annual growth rate will reach 6..6%, or the overall size will more than triple, while the U.S. aviation market will grow at an average annual rate of only 2.1%。

However, the Indian aviation market is smaller and from a lower base, and even by 2041, Indian consumers will still fly less frequently than Americans in 2019.。

The forecast comes as airlines are flocking to place orders to renew their fleets, meaning that the huge aviation market has not only recovered gradually, but is also growing well.。