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Opinion: Inflation is unlikely to fall enough for the Fed to cut interest rates this year

According to online reports, several Wall Street economists said that because of the complex calculations behind the data and trends in key areas, policymakers are likely not to feel too relieved by the numbers. Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau said in a report,"In short, the inflation process in 2025 has been off to a bad start, and our forecast for Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation further confirms our view that inflation is unlikely to fall enough to allow the Fed to cut interest rates this year, especially if policy changes push inflation higher." Unless economic activity data weakens significantly, we believe policy rates will remain unchanged until the end of the year." Although the Federal Reserve also pays attention to CPI and PPI, it believes that the final say on inflation belongs to the PCE price index. Most economists believe the latest PCE data later this month will show year-on-year inflation is stable at best at 2.6%, and may even rise slightly, further away from the Fed's 2% target. (Jin Shi)

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