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QCP Capital: Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates are heating up. Only one interest rate cut was expected at the beginning of the year, but now it is raised to four times

On March 12, QCP Capital released market analysis today, pointing out that global trade tensions have escalated, market sentiment has been under pressure, and a new round of tariffs may be implemented on April 2. The 25% steel and aluminum tariffs that came into effect today have triggered countermeasures by the EU, which plans to implement 26 billion euros (22 billion pounds) in tariffs starting in April. Market volatility intensified: the VIX index soared to 28, then fell back to 26.6, and the Cboe VIX futures curve entered an inverted state, suggesting that the market may be near a bottom. Tonight's CPI data may determine market interest rate expectations. The current market expects the Federal Reserve to increase the number of interest rates in 2024 from one to four. However, the unexpected rise in CPI in January has made the market suspicious of slowing inflation, and investors remain cautious. Crypto market dynamics: The SEC postponed the approval of XRP, SOL, LTC, ADA, and DOGE ETFs until May, and will hold a crypto regulatory roundtable on March 21 to discuss the classification and regulatory framework of crypto assets. Bitcoin ETF showed a net outflow of US$154 million, of which GBTC sold 641 BTC (worth US$56.45 million) in a single day, indicating that institutional investors are heating up cautious. The market will pay close attention to whether CPI data confirms a slowing inflation trend, while the progress of ETF approval and the results of regulatory meetings may also affect the short-term trend of the crypto market.

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