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Week Ahead: Focus on U.S. Jobs Report, China Statistics, and Yen Intervention Actions

In the coming week, US labor market data, ISM service sector PMI data, and the Federal Open Market Committee press conference will be the focus of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut bet.

This article collates the information that investors in the foreign exchange market need to pay attention to in the coming week.

Dollars

On Monday, the US dollar will focus on the employment cost data for the first quarter of 2024 and the US consumer confidence index. The rising trend of employment costs and consumer confidence may affect the interest rate path of the Federal Reserve. The increase in wage levels and consumer confidence will indicate an increase in consumer spending and demand driven inflation.

On Wednesday, the April ADP non farm employment data will attract investor interest.

Tight labor market conditions support wage growth and an increase in disposable income. The upward trend of disposable income may drive consumer spending. However, investors should also consider job vacancy reports in the United States. More job vacancies and resignation rates mean a strong labor market environment.

On Thursday, unit labor costs, non-farm productivity, and unemployment claims will once again draw investors' attention to the US labor market.

On Friday, average hourly wage, non farm employment, and unemployment rate are labor market indicators that investors need to pay more attention to. In addition to the labor market, the ISM Non Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index also needs to be considered. The service industry is a contributor to inflation. Input costs, employment, and new order trends will also play a driving role.

For the US dollar, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and FOMC press conference (Wednesday) may play a key role. The market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at 5.50%, so the press conference has received much attention.

Euro

On Monday, Germany's inflation data for early April will draw attention to the euro/dollar. If the inflation data falls below expectations, it may increase investors' bets on the European Central Bank's interest rate cut in June.

On Tuesday, GDP data for France and Germany will be released. In addition, the GDP and inflation data of the eurozone will also attract the attention of investors. These data may affect market speculation about the European Central Bank's multiple interest rate cuts.

On Thursday, the final manufacturing PMI data for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will be released. The correction of preliminary data in early April may have an impact.

In addition to numbers, investors should also closely monitor the discussions of the European Central Bank. Opinions on inflation, economic outlook, and interest rate reduction schedule need to be considered.

Pound

On Wednesday, UK manufacturing PMI data will affect the pound.

Although manufacturing accounts for less than 30% of the UK economy, PMI may reflect the demand environment. The downward adjustment to the preliminary investigation in early April may put pressure on the pound.

The trend in UK housing prices may also have an impact. The continuous decline in housing prices may affect consumer confidence and spending. The downward trend in consumer spending may suppress demand driven inflation.

On Friday, the crucial PMI for the service industry requires investors to pay close attention. The upward adjustment of the service sector PMI in early April may test investors' bets on the Bank of England's interest rate cut. The service industry accounts for over 70% of the UK economy and contributes to inflation.

In addition to numbers, it is also necessary to closely monitor the speech of the Bank of England.

Canadian Dollar

On Monday, the GDP data for March will affect the Canadian dollar. The unexpected performance of the Canadian economy may affect investors' expectations for the Bank of Canada's recent interest rate cut.

On Thursday, the Canadian trade data for March will attract the attention of investors. The improvement of trade conditions will drive the demand for buying Canadian dollars.

Amidst the scrutiny of the Canadian economy, investors should also closely monitor discussions with the Bank of Canada. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Vice President Carolyn Rogers plan to deliver speeches on Thursday.

AUD

The retail sales data in Australia will affect the buying demand for the Australian dollar. The growth in retail sales may drive demand driven inflation and force the Bank of Australia to adopt a more hawkish monetary policy stance.

On Thursday, the government will release trade data. The improvement of trade terms will support the Australian economy and the Australian dollar.

Other data includes real estate data. However, these data may have a second impact on the market compared to retail sales and trade data.

New Zealand Dollar

On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's financial stability report will affect buying demand for the New Zealand dollar. On Wednesday, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr will be the focus. His views on inflation, economic and interest rate trends need to be considered by investors.

Japanese Yen

The industrial production, labor market, and retail sales data for March may affect the buying demand for the Japanese yen on Tuesday.

As the dust settles on the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Japan on April 26th, the improvement in demand may indicate an improvement in the demand environment. A lower unemployment rate may support higher wage, household expenditure, and consumer price trends.

On Wednesday, Japan's consumer confidence data may indicate the latest update on household spending plans in the near future.

On Thursday, the minutes of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting will receive attention. However, the market may perceive the minutes of the Bank of Japan as outdated.

In addition to the economic calendar, investors should also closely monitor potential intervention actions by the Japanese government.

China

On Tuesday, the Purchasing Managers' Index data for manufacturing and non manufacturing industries from the National Bureau of Statistics of China will attract the attention of investors. The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index will be released on Tuesday.

These data will affect market risk sentiment and demand for commodity currencies. Commodity currencies include the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Canadian dollar.

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