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If the economy recedes, the Federal Reserve may start a series of rapid interest rate cuts in June

Online reports and institutional analysis pointed out that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates at next week's policy meeting, but if concerns about a recession caused by the trade war intensify and come true, a series of rapid interest rate cuts may begin in June. At least in the futures market, more and more contracts are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June, July and October, a trend that followed U.S. President Trump's remarks about a "transition period" over the weekend because he imposed tariffs on many countries. U.S. stock and bond yields also fell on Monday amid concerns that his comments herald an upcoming recession. "Although seemingly calm on the surface, if labor or financial markets both start to slide before the Fed has had time to assess the tariffs and the impact of the entire Trump agenda on inflation,(Fed policymakers) are increasingly concerned about the rising risk of dual tasking and the ability to withstand U.S. President Trump's pressure to cut interest rates,"Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, wrote in a note." A slow-to-respond Fed will attract the ire of the Trump administration."

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