Adobe will announce its Q2 2024 financial performance on June 13th, with an expected revenue that may exceed market expectations and profits that may align with expectations.

Market performance compared to competitors

As of now, Adobe's stock price has fallen by 23% in 2024, while the S&P 500 index has risen by 12% during the same period. In sharp contrast, Adobe's competitor Oracle saw a 20% increase during the same period.

Expected performance

Adobe's performance in the previous quarter exceeded market expectations, with total revenue increasing by 11% year-on-year to $5.18 billion, mainly due to a 12% growth in the digital media department and a 10% growth in the digital experience department. The annualized recurring revenue (ARR) of digital media increased from $13.67 billion to $15.76 billion. It is expected that the performance in the second quarter will maintain a similar trend.

Stock price performance over the past three years

In the current financial context, Adobe's stock price has dropped from $500 at the beginning of 2021 to $460 now, while the S&P 500 index has risen by about 45% during the same period. The performance of Adobe's stock price has been relatively volatile, with a return rate of 13% in 2021, -41% in 2022, and 77% in 2023. In contrast, the returns of the S&P 500 index were 27%, -19%, and 24%, respectively.

Financial forecast

It is expected that Adobe's revenue for the fiscal year 2024 will reach $21.49 billion, and Adobe's revenue for the second quarter is expected to be $5.33 billion. Adobe's earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter is expected to reach $4.42. Adobe's net profit increased by 14% year-on-year in the fiscal year 2023, but decreased by 50% in the first quarter of 2024 due to a $1 billion acquisition termination fee. It is expected that the net profit in the second quarter will improve, and the full year GAAP earnings per share are expected to be $12.37.