Well-known supply chain analyst Guo Mingzhen recently pointed out that Apple has cut orders for about 10 million iPhone 16 units.

The order cut mainly affects the standard iPhone 16 model rather than the better-selling iPhone 16 Pro series.The iPhone 16 Pro has always been the more popular model on the market due to its higher-end display screen and photography capabilities.This adjustment is expected to affect market performance in the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025.

According to Guo Mingzhen 's estimates, the production volume of iPhone 16 from the second half of 2024 to the first half of 2025 has been reduced to 84 million units, about 4 million units less than the original forecast of 88 million units.

In addition, Guo Mingzhen predicts that Apple's total iPhone production in the fourth quarter of 2024 will drop to 80 million units, down from approximately 84 million units in 2023.Production in the first quarter of 2025 is expected to be 45 million units, and will drop to 39 million units in the second quarter, a decrease from 48 million units and 41 million units in the same period last year.

Guo Mingzhen believes that Apple's iPhone revenue may face pressure in the first half of 2025 due to reduced annual shipments and changes in the product portfolio.

The iPhone SE 4 is expected to be launched in December 2024. Its lower price makes it a more affordable option in Apple's iPhone series, but Apple usually does not update the SE series every year, which makes market demand less than that of other high-end models.With the launch of the iPhone SE 4, Apple's product portfolio will be more inclined towards low-cost models, which may pose challenges to Apple's revenue growth in the first half of 2025.

Despite facing pressure from hardware sales in the short term, Guo Minghao is still optimistic about Apple's long-term development in the AI field.He pointed out that Apple has advantages in device-side AI and has the potential to transform this technology into a popular paid service in the future.

After Guo Minghao released the news, Apple's share price fell about 2% on the day, indicating that investors were worried about the iPhone order cut.This also reflects the market's sensitivity to Apple's hardware sales performance, especially in the context of intensified competition in the global smartphone market.Although Apple Intelligence and AI features provide opportunities for the company to explore new revenue sources in the future, in the short term, Apple still needs to continue to work hard on hardware innovation if it wants to revitalize iPhone sales.