Apple was downgraded by Wall Street analysts, and "three major" factors have become hidden worries!
Jefferies analysts downgraded Apple's stock rating from "Hold" to "Underperform", and reduced the target price to $200.75, implying a decline of approximately 13%. Analysts pointed out that weak iPhone demand, the difficulty of commercializing AI technology, and the risks of investing in new technologies are the main reasons. Intensified competition in the Chinese market and policy restrictions have pressured Apple, and the outlook for the future is not optimistic.
Why did Jefferies analysts downgrade Apple's rating significantly?
Edison Lee, an analyst at investment bank Jefferies, rarely downgraded Apple's stock rating from "hold" to "underperform" and lowered its target price from US$211.84 to US$200.75, implying a decline of about 13% from the current share price. The reason why this downgrade has attracted special attention is that only 8.5% of Wall Street analysts give Apple a "sell" or "underperform" rating, and most analysts are still optimistic.
Edison Lee attributed his bearish outlook to the following three points:
- iPhone demand remains weak：苹果 2024 年第 4 季的 iPhone 出货量较去年同期下降 4%，其中中国市场更是重灾区。分析师预估苹果在 2025 年的 iPhone 出货量可能进一步出现双位数的下滑，对新机型 iPhone SE 和 iPhone 16 的市场表现持悲观看法。
- Insufficient commercialization capabilities of AI technology：苹果推出的 AI 平台「Apple Intelligence」并未受到消费者青睐，第三方数据显示，美国用户对智慧型手机内建的 AI 功能需求不高，使得苹果在 AI 技术上的投资与创新价值受到质疑。
- New technology investment risks：苹果与台积电(TSM)合作开发的 WMCM 封装技术虽然瞄准了装置端 AI 的未来，但高昂的研发成本可能侵蚀苹果的毛利率，甚至影响其产品推出时间。
How much pressure is the China market on Apple's sales?
Apple is facing unprecedented pressure in the China market:
- Consumption downgrade and increased competition
中国经济复苏疲弱，消费者更倾向于选择性价比更高的 Android 旗舰机型。2024 年华为推出的新机 Mate 70 销售强劲，对 iPhone 16 销量造成直接威胁，苹果在中国市场的市占率因此下滑至第三名，仅次于 Vivo 和华为。 - Policies restrict subsidy coverage
中国商务部针对人民币 6,000 元（约 820 美元）以下的手机提供 15% 补贴，而 iPhone 的定价普遍超出这一范围，未能受惠于政策激励。即使苹果尝试推出相对平价的 iPhone SE 系列，市场需求也仍不明朗。 - The future outlook is not optimistic
分析师预测苹果在 2025 年中国市场的 iPhone 销量可能再次出现双位数的降幅，反映出中国消费者对苹果产品的吸引力正在减弱。
Why is AI-related investment an uncertain factor for Apple?
AI is seen as the future of the technology industry, but Apple's progress has caused market concerns:
- insufficient market demand
调查显示，大部分消费者对智慧型手机内建 AI 的兴趣有限，这意味著苹果难以通过 AI 应用来刺激新一波的换机需求。 - Technology costs and margin pressures
苹果与台积电合作的 WMCM 技术专注于 AI 运算的装置端处理，但该技术的研发与生产成本居高不下。如果苹果未能有效控制成本或推迟技术应用，其高毛利率的商业模式将面临挑战。 - Competition and commercialization slow down
相较于 Google(GOOG) 和微软(MSFT)等 AI 领域的积极布局，苹果的 AI 商业化进程相对缓慢。分析师指出，即使未来两年内推出搭载更强 AI 功能的新款 iPhone，若市场接受度有限，产品销量增长仍可能放缓。
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