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Asian stocks soar, dollar falls as investors closely watch CPI data

Asian markets rose on 15 May while the dollar weakened as traders digested positive news on US producer price data and prepared for the key consumer price report due later in the day.

On May 15, as traders digested the positive news from the U.S. Producer Price Index data and prepared for the crucial Consumer Price Report later in the day, Asian markets rose while the dollar weakened. This report is expected to influence the near-term policy trajectory of the Federal Reserve. Apart from Japan, the MSCI Asia Pacific Stock Index rose by 0.38%, reaching a new 15-month high intraday. The Nikkei Index rose by 0.58%.

Data showed that producer prices in the U.S. rose more than expected in April, indicating that inflation remains elevated in the early stages of the second quarter.

At a banking event in Amsterdam, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell referred to the PPI data as "mixed" rather than "red-hot" due to previous data being revised downwards. Due to sustained inflation, investors have lowered their expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts this year, currently expecting a cut of 43 basis points, compared to the forecast of 150 basis points at the beginning of 2024.

Ryan Brandham, Head of North American Global Capital Markets at Validus Risk Management, stated, "Due to disappointing U.S. labor market statistics, market expectations for rate cuts have recently increased, but if prices do not follow suit, the prospect of rate cuts will be undermined."

All eyes are now on the US CPI figures, with a survey showing that CPI is expected to have risen by 0.3 per cent in April from a year earlier, down from 0.4 per cent in the previous month. Although Powell once again reiterated his caution on rate cuts, according to ING economists, the Fed chairman, as well as Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, ruled out a rate hike.

The Nasdaq index hit a new closing high on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices also rising, buoyed by Powell's comments, which led investors to believe that the central bank's next rate move is unlikely to be a hike.

In China, the stock market fell in early trading, with the blue-chip index down by 0.16%, and the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong down by 0.22%.

In the currency markets, the dollar weakened, with traders remaining cautious ahead of the CPI report. The euro approached a one-month high, closing at 1.0817 dollars. The dollar index, which compares the dollar against six other currencies, closed at 105.01. The yen closed at 156.36 against the dollar, hitting a two-week low of 156.80 on Tuesday, with traders concerned that Japanese authorities may intervene again.

On April 29th, the yen hit a 34-year low against the dollar, triggering a wave of intense yen buying, which traders and analysts attributed to coordinated efforts by the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance.

Oil prices rose as large-scale wildfires threatened Canadian oil sands, and the market expected a decrease in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories for the day.

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