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Asian Markets Fall On Monday; China Inflation Data Unexpectedly Mild

On Monday, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.4% following last week's nearly 6% drop. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index fell 1.2%, following last week's 2.25% drop, while South Korea's market fell 1.3%.

Asian stock markets were generally down on Monday.

Japan's Nikkei 225 was most affected by the decline in technology stocks, falling 2.4% following last week's nearly 6% drop. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index fell 1.2%, following last week's 2.25% decline, while South Korea's market fell 1.3%.

China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed that the country's CPI rose 0.6% year-on-year in August, with the increase centered on food costs, while commodity prices rose just 0.2%, indicating weak domestic demand.

Concerns about a possible downturn in the U.S. economy pressured Wall Street. But U.S. stock futures then recovered from early losses, and bond yields recovered from their lows. On Monday, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures posted modest gains after Friday's losses.

In addition, EUROSTOXX 50 futures rose 0.3%, while FTSE 100 futures gained 0.5%.

Fed fund futures fell as investors expressed skepticism that the U.S. jobs report for August would be enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points at next week's meeting. The market now expects a 33 percent chance of a significant rate cut, in part due to comments by Fed official Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams on Friday, but Waller has not ruled out the possibility of aggressive easing.

“Our reading of the data suggests that the labor market continues to cool, but we don't see signs of a rapid deterioration that would require a 50 basis point rate cut,” said Barclays economist Christian Keller. “Importantly, we find no such intent in Fed communications. We maintain our forecast that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at each of its last two meetings of the year and by a total of 75 basis points over the next year.”

Investor expectations for easing are significantly more dovish, with a 113 basis point cut expected by Christmas and a further 132 basis points in 2025.

The case for a rate cut would be further supported by data from the U.S. Consumer Price Index for August, if headline inflation is expected to fall from 2.9% to 2.6%.

In addition, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump will debate the presidential election for the first time on Tuesday.

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