January 4 (Thursday) Asian morning market, international oil prices continue to rise。

Market Review

On Wednesday, January 3, international oil prices jumped more than 3% due to supply chain concerns caused by disruptions to Libya's top oil fields。WTI main crude oil futures closed up 2.$32, up 3.3%, reported 72.$7 a barrel; Brent main crude futures close up 2.$36, up 3.11% at 78.$25 a barrel; INE crude futures close up 1.4%, at 556.2 yuan。

As of press time, WTI's main crude oil futures prices rose 0 today.96% at 73.$40 / bbl; Brent main crude futures up 0 today.75% at 78.$84 / barrel。

important news

l One of Libya's largest oil fields is at risk of complete closure: due to personnel protests, part of the Sharara field, one of Libya's largest oil fields, has been forced to shut down, with production rising from 26.50,000 barrels per day down to 23.50,000 barrels per day。Ten wells in the field have been shut down, but pumping continues at the port of Zawiya。People familiar with the matter said they would seek to shut down the oil field altogether if the protesters' demands were not met.。

l Fed minutes release rate cut uncertainty: the minutes said, participants noted that the outlook for rate cuts "uncertainty is unusually high," further rate hikes are still possible。The minutes also showed that Fed officials appear to be increasingly convinced that inflation is under control and that "upside risks" are diminishing, and that they are increasingly concerned that "overly restrictive" monetary policy could harm the economy.。

l The conflict between Israel and Hamas affects Lebanon: Saleh Aruri, deputy chairman of the Hamas Politburo, was killed in an Israeli drone strike on the southern outskirts of the Lebanese capital Beirut on the same day.。Aruri is Hamas's "number two" and one of the founders of the group's armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, responsible for Hamas operations in the West Bank.。The market pays close attention to the development of the Middle East situation。

l Iran bombing may heat up the geopolitical situation: Iran's explosion at the site of the commemoration of Soleimani killed nearly a hundred people, especially with news that the attack may have been caused by Israel's sudden rise in geopolitical risk, Iran vowed to punish the perpetrators of the Kerman city bombing。

OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers reaffirm commitment to unity, full cohesion and market stability。Over the past few years, OPEC has made significant efforts to support the global economy in overcoming many challenges, including the new crown epidemic.。OPEC's actions "ensure stability in the oil market, especially compared to other commodities"。

l OPEC + to hold network meeting early next month: a person familiar with the matter said the meeting is planned for February 1。The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies began a new round of production cuts this month in an attempt to avert a first-quarter global oversupply and defend crude prices.。

l API crude oil inventories fell more than expected: American Petroleum Institute (API) data show that the United States to December 29 week API crude oil inventories -741.80,000 barrels, expected - 296.70,000 barrels, previous value 183.70,000 barrels。US API Gasoline Stocks for Week to December 29 691.30,000 barrels, expected 700,000.90,000 barrels, previous -48.20,000 barrels。US API Refined Oil Inventories for Week to December 29 668.60,000 barrels, expected 91.30,000 barrels, previous value 27.20,000 barrels。

Technical analysis

Rémy GAUSSENS, director of research at TRADING CENTRAL, said that on the 30-minute line, U.S. crude oil (WTI) - futures (G4) - are expected to rise restrictively during the day, with ultra-short term (intra-day) support at 72.15 nearby.。

Trading Strategy: At 72.15 above, bullish, with a target price of 73.70, then 74.40; alternative strategies: at 72.15 down, bearish, target price set at 71.25, then 70.45。Support level: 71.25,70.45; resistance level: 73.70, 74.40。

This week's important schedule

Tuesday, January 2

04: 00 Eurozone December Manufacturing PMI Final Value

04: 30 UK December Manufacturing PMI

09: 45 US December Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Value

10: 00 Monthly Rate of US Construction Expenditure in November

 

Wednesday, January 3

10: 00 US December ISM Manufacturing PMI

10: 00 US November JOLTs Job Vacancies

16: 30 US API Crude Oil Inventory for Week to December 29

20: 45 China's December Caixin Services PMI.

 

Thursday 4th January

04: 00 Eurozone December Services PMI Final Value

04: 30 UK November Central Bank Mortgage Permit.

04: 30 UK December Services PMI

07: 30 U.S. December Challenger Corporate Layoffs

08: 15 U.S. ADP Employment in December

08: 30 U.S. to December 30 Initial jobless claims for the week

09: 45 US December Markit Services PMI Final Value

11: 00 US to December 29 week EIA crude oil inventories

11: 00 U.S. to December 29 Week EIA Oklahoma Cushing Crude Oil Inventories

11: 00 U.S. to December 29 Week EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory

 

Friday, January 5

05: 00 Eurozone December CPI Initial Annual Rate

05: 00 Eurozone December CPI Monthly Rate

05: 00 Eurozone November PPI Monthly Rate

08: 30 U.S. Unemployment Rate in December

08: 30 US non-farm payrolls after December quarter adjustment

10: 00 US December ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

10: 00 U.S. November Factory Orders Monthly Rate

13: 00 Total number of oil rigs for the week from the United States to January 5

 

* * The above schedule is US Eastern Time (UTC-05: 00) * *