January 8 (Monday) Asian morning market, spot gold lower。

Market Review

1On May 5 (last Friday), affected by the U.S. economic data, the international gold price intraday high and low volatility of 1%, low to $2024, the highest hit $2063, the final closing price rose slightly, closed at 2045.The $49 level。

Spot gold prices down 0 today as of press time.63%, reported 2031.$50 an ounce; dollar index up 0 on day.02% at 102.44。

important news

l U.S. December non-farm payrolls data beat expectations: U.S. non-farm payrolls recorded an increase of 21 after the December quarter..60,000, a higher-than-expected 170,000, a new high since September 2023, with an unemployment rate of 3.7%, lower than expected 3.8%。U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew faster in December and wages rose more than expected, weakening the possibility of a Fed rate cut in March。Traders' expectations for the probability of a Fed rate cut in March fell to around 50% after the jobs report。

l Explosion in Moscow, Russia: according to the Russian emergency services, an explosion occurred in a hookah bar in Domodedovo, Moscow, suspected to be a grenade explosion。Three people have been injured in the explosion.。

l The inter-Korean situation escalated: according to the South Korean Joint Staff Headquarters, the North Korean army continued its coastal artillery fire on the northern part of Yeonpyeong Island on 7 July.。North Korea rebuilt outposts in concrete and planted mines on the Gyeongui and Donghae line highways less than a month after it began repairing forward outposts (GPs) inside the inter-Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), Yonhap said.。In response, South Korean warships deployed near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the western waters unloaded their artillery guns。

l Fed official Barkin speaks again: Fed official Barkin says that as the economy normalizes, the Fed should also normalize interest rates, and that further acceleration of the economy seems unlikely。The labor market seems to be moving in a very steady slowdown。Given that the progress of the inflation pullback over the past six months has been so dependent on lower commodity prices, there is more uncertainty about the path of inflation。Companies are still trying to raise prices at a rate higher than pre-epidemic levels, and the first quarter figures will be important given that companies tend to raise prices at the beginning of the year。U.S. inflation remains above Fed target, employment near maximum。The labor market is "normalizing nicely," given the rate hikes the Fed has already instituted before.。

l Yellen stresses that the U.S. economy has achieved a soft landing: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced Friday that the U.S. economy has achieved a long-sought soft landing, which is unusual and even rare in history。In this case, high inflation was subdued, but there was no serious economic slowdown.。Yellen said in an interview on the same day, "What we're seeing now, I think it could be called a soft landing for the economy, and I hope it continues.。"

l The market is concerned about the U.S. December CPI data: on Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release December consumer price index (CPI) data.。Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.3%, unchanged from November's gain。

l China's central bank gold reserves 14 consecutive increases: January 7, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced that China's central bank has increased its holdings of gold for 14 consecutive months。Data show that as of the end of December 2023, the size of China's gold reserves reported 71.87 million ounces, an increase of 290,000 ounces from the previous year.。Since the restart of the increase in November 2022, the central bank has increased its holdings by 9.23 million ounces of gold.。If measured at the average interval price, the corresponding increase in holdings is about $130 billion.。

l CME "Fed Watch": Fed keeps rates at 5 in February.25% -5.The probability of the 50% interval being constant is 93.3%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.7%。The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by March is 30.8%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut of 64.7%, with a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut of 4.5%。

Technical analysis

Rémy GAUSSENS, director of research at TRADING CENTRAL, said that on the 30-minute line, spot gold is expected to rise restrictively within the day, and the technology is rated as ultra-short-term (within the day) technical indicators run complex trends.。

Trading Strategy: In 2038.00 above, bullish, target price 2050.00, then 2056.00; alternative strategy: in 2038.00, bearish, target price set at 2031.00, then 2024.00。Support level: 2031.00 ， 2024.00; resistance level: 2050.00, 2056.00。

This week's important schedule

Tuesday, January 9

06: 00 US December NFIB Small Business Confidence Index

08: 30 US November Trade Account

 

Wednesday, January 10

10: 00 Monthly Wholesale Sales Rate in November

10: 00 US to January 5 week EIA crude oil inventories

10: 30 U.S. to January 5 Week EIA Oklahoma Cushing Crude Oil Inventory

13: 00 U.S. to January 10 10 10-year Treasury auction - bid rate.

13: 00 U.S. to January 10 10 10-year Treasury bid - bid multiple.

 

Thursday 11th January

08: 30 U.S. December not quarterly CPI annual rate

08: 30 US monthly CPI rate after December quarter adjustment

08: 30 Initial jobless claims for the week from the United States to January 6

08: 30 U.S. Core CPI Annual Rate Not Quarterly in December

08: 30 U.S. December Core CPI Monthly Rate

10: 30 US to January 5 week EIA natural gas stocks

 

Friday, January 12

08: 30 US December PPI Annual Rate

08: 30 US December PPI Monthly Rate

13: 00 Total number of oil wells drilled in the United States for the week ending January 12

 

* * The above schedule is US Eastern Time (UTC-05: 00) * *