On the evening of April 7, the U.S. Labor Office announced the U.S. non-farm payrolls and the U.S. unemployment rate for March.。U.S. nonfarm payrolls up 23 in March, data shows.60,000, expected to increase by 230,000; revised up in February to an increase of 32.60,000。Unemployment rate drops to 3.5%。

Bureau of Labor Statistics says nonfarm payrolls up 23 in March.60,000, an average monthly increase of 33 over the past six months.40,000 people。Among key worker groups, the Hispanic unemployment rate fell to 4 in March..6%, essentially offsetting last month's rise。adult male (3.4%), adult women (3.1%), adolescents (9.8%), white (3.2%), black (5.0%), Asian (2.8%) the unemployment rate has barely changed in a month.

In addition, the number of new non-farm payrolls increased from 50 in January..40,000 corrected to 47.20,000; non-farm payrolls added in February from 31.10,000 revised to 32.60,000 people。Overall, revised employment figures were lower than before。

Although the non-farm payrolls data recorded the smallest increase since December 2020, implying a gradual saturation of the U.S. labor market, other employment data released a few days ago have lowered market psychological expectations: the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment index fell significantly in March, the number of new jobs created by small non-farm ADP fell far short of expectations, the number of job cuts by challenger companies significantly exceeded expectations, and the February JOLTS job openings data was below 10 million for。

Better-than-expected unemployment data, short-term boost to the dollar。

After the data, the dollar index dollar index DXY short-term jump of 20 points, non-US currencies generally lower。

Among them, the euro against the dollar and the pound against the dollar are short-term lower nearly 30 points, the dollar against the Canadian dollar short-term higher nearly 20 points, the dollar against the yen USD / JPY short-term up nearly 70 points, up to 132.25。

U.S. Labor Department says unemployment rate drops to 3.5%, lower than expected 3.6 per cent, as the labour force participation rate rose to its highest level before the neo-crown pandemic.。

Better-than-expected unemployment figures appear to have led to renewed interest rate hike expectations。

U.S. short-term Treasury yields moved higher after the data was released, with the most sensitive 2-year U.S. Treasury yield pulling up 1.88%, reported 3.974%。The market expects the probability of an additional rate hike by the Fed to be relatively stable at the next meeting (only 4.83% of the effective federal funds rate has risen by about 19 basis points), suggesting that the probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in May is close to 75%。

Meanwhile, markets have reduced their bets on the Fed's rate cut late this year。Swaps show that by the end of December, the federal funds rate will be 4.About 33% (4 before the non-agricultural announcement.18%)。

In addition, the probability of a Fed rate hike is slightly higher than before the data was released。According to CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 43.2%, raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.00% -5.The probability of the 25% interval is 56.8%; the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by June is 4.8%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 44.7%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike of 50.5%。

On the institutional side, bets on the Fed's rate hike at its May meeting are not in the minority。

Priya Misra, head of global interest rate strategy at TD Securities, said the performance of the U.S. jobs report will raise the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate hike in May and delay the timing of the rate cut, but the market will remain focused on other less lagging data and bank earnings。

For his part, Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at National Insurance, said that while the data was a bit mixed, the labor market was strong and inflation remained high and sticky enough to cause the Fed to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in May, but that could be the last of the tightening cycle, followed by a long pause.。

Bloomberg Finance analyst Anna Wong (Anna Wong) also said that the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points at its May meeting, when the upper limit of the federal funds rate will reach 5.25%。With OPEC + 's recent production cuts and the U.S. labor market still tight, U.S. inflation is likely to remain around 4% in 2023 and keep the Fed from cutting rates as markets currently expect.。We expect the Fed to keep interest rates at peak levels this year, although a modest recession is likely at the end of 2023.。

In addition, there are institutional tips that investors should turn their attention to the upcoming U.S. inflation data。

Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed income strategy at Wisdom Investments, said the upcoming U.S. inflation data is the final determinant of the Fed's May meeting, and consistent or stronger CPI data will pose a challenge to the U.S. bond market。

Unless the farm data, Wednesday (April 12) evening released the U.S. March quarter adjusted CPI monthly rate is also worthy of attention, the data is an important measure of U.S. inflation, the Federal Reserve to adjust monetary policy guidance.。

Affected by the published data, as of press time, the intraday dollar against the yuan rose slightly by 0.03%, reported 6.8792。