The US job market continues to remain strong, despite slightly higher than expected initial unemployment claims in the past week. The sustained rebalancing of economic demand and easing of inflationary pressures may prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September of this year.

Although unemployment benefit application data shows some fluctuations in the labor market, the overall trend still indicates a healthy job market, and the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring market trends to ensure economic stability.

Initial unemployment benefit data

• Latest data: As of the week ending May 11th, the adjusted number of initial recipients of unemployment benefits was 222,000, higher than the market expectation of 219,000.
• Previous week's data revision: The number of people receiving unemployment benefits at the beginning of the previous week has been adjusted to 232,000, an increase of 1,000 people compared to before.
• Four-week moving average: The four-week moving average is 21,775 people,

Renewal of unemployment benefits data

• Unemployment benefit renewals: for the week ending May 4, the adjusted number of subsequent unemployment benefits was 1.794 million, higher than market expectations of 1.78 million.
• Previous week data revision: After adjusting the previous value, it was 1.781 million people, an increase of 13,000 people.
• Four-week moving average: The four week moving average is 1.77925 million people.

Review of the job market

• Previous week's volatility: Initial unemployment claims for the week ending May 4 reached their highest level in eight months, mainly due to a surge in applications related to spring break in New York schools.
• Market strength: Despite seasonal fluctuations, the overall job market remains healthy.

Fed policy implications

• Interest rate policy: Since March 2022, the Fed has raised interest rates by 525 basis points to cool economic demand, and the benchmark interest rate is currently at 5.25% to 5.50%.
• Job market outlook: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell says the job market is cooling and workers are back in balance, which is key to curbing price pressures.

Future expectations

• Possible rate cut: easing job market conditions and a downward trend in inflation raise the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September.
• Policy Watch: The Fed will continue to monitor job market movements to ensure a balance between economic demand and supply and demand and further stabilize price pressures.