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Market Bets on Fed Rate Cuts, USD/SGD Falls to Near Decade Low

On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar plunged to 1.2932 against the Singapore dollar (USD/SGD), hitting its lowest level since mid-November 2014.

On Tuesday, the US Dollar to Singapore Dollar (USD/SGD) exchange rate plummeted to 1.2932, its lowest level since mid-November 2014, as market participants increased bets that the Federal Reserve was about to implement a significant interest rate cut. Meanwhile, data showed that Singapore's non-oil domestic exports rose in August, but at a slower-than-expected pace.

The market now expects the Fed to implement a 50 basis point rate cut at its September 17-18 policy meeting with a probability of about 59%, up significantly from 27% a week ago. Futures markets continue to expect the Fed to cut rates by 125 basis points by the end of the year.

Macquarie strategists pointed out in an investor report, regardless of whether the Fed chooses to cut rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points on Wednesday, they believe that the Fed's message will be “dovish”. Additional market attention will focus on the upcoming release of August U.S. retail sales data, an indicator closely related to consumer spending.

Other data show that the Singapore Bureau of Statistics report showed that the country's non-oil domestic exports in August rose 10.7% year-on-year, compared with July's 15.7% growth slowed down, and lower than the market generally expected 15%. Specifically, exports to Hong Kong (up 70.6% year-on-year), China (18.8%), South Korea (20.3%), Taiwan (37.2%), Malaysia (28.6%) and Indonesia (18.6%) all rose.

As of 7:58 GMT on Tuesday, the dollar edged down 0.11 percent against the Singapore dollar to trade at 1.2935.

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