Since the end of October last year to the beginning of February this year, the dollar, U.S. debt and precious metals prices have ushered in a round of obvious adjustment, during which U.S. bond yields from 4.2 above down to 3.Below 3, the dollar fell from a low of 113 to 101, while the external gold price rebounded all the way from a low of $1618 / oz to a high of $1975 / oz.。Specifically, this round of asset adjustments mainly reflects three market expectations: first, the Fed's expectations of a gradual slowdown in interest rate hikes until they stop are continuously strengthened。With inflation falling sharply in a row, the Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the last time in November and signaled that a slowdown was imminent, officially launching this round of adjustments.。Second, U.S. recession expectations continue to ferment, for example, after the PMI fell back to contraction in December last year, both the dollar and U.S. bond rates fell sharply.。Third, the Fed stopped raising interest rates and the expected early release of interest rate cuts.。Before and after the February meeting, market expectations for interest rates at the end of 2023 have fallen back to 4.4%。Under the resonance of triple expectations, U.S. debt and the dollar pulled back sharply, while precious metals prices rose strongly。

With the release of U.S. January non-farm payrolls data and economic data such as the PMI, the market has again adjusted sharply for the path of the Fed's rate hike。From the current FedWatch reflects the interest rate hike expectations can be seen, the market expects the Fed in March, May will still raise interest rates 1 times, the high will reach 5..25%, and the full-year interest rate will remain above 5%。In addition, with the recent Fed officials intensively issued a more "hawkish" remarks, the market began to trade some of the more aggressive interest rate hike is expected, some investors have begun to bet that the Fed will raise interest rates in June to 5.5%。The adjustment of the Fed's interest rate hike path has also brought a correction in asset prices, nearly a week, U.S. debt and the U.S. dollar have ushered in a significant rebound, gold prices fell back to $1900 / ounce below the continued volatility, silver prices by speculative properties of the decline is more obvious than gold。

On the whole, I believe that there is still correction pressure on precious metal prices in the short to medium term。On the one hand, with the release of more than expected employment and economic data, the market still needs some time to adjust, especially the dollar and other assets included in more interest rate cut expectations are expected to take this as an opportunity to usher in a stage rebound;。In addition, future U.S. inflation and slowing economic growth need further validation of the data, and there is still some distance from the next interest rate meeting, gold and silver lack of new upward drivers.。

However, the main line of current market trading is still the fall in U.S. inflation and the end of the Fed's rate hike, the expected correction will not bring about a fundamental reversal of trading logic, therefore, precious metals prices will not form a fundamental reversal, will still be mainly adjustment。

Although precious metals still face some downside risk in the short to medium term, they are still bullish on the long-term allocation value of precious metals。The next market start is expected to come from the U.S. recession after the second quarter of this year and the Fed's expected rate cut.。As the U.S. economy continues to weaken, the market expects the U.S. to start the second quarter of this year with a possible negative GDP growth, increasing the risk of a substantial recession.。With the official end of the Fed rate hike and recessionary pressures continuing to increase, the market will start trading monetary easing expectations again。And thanks to recession fears and easing expectations, real interest rates will fall significantly, with the 10-year U.S. bond rate falling below 3%。Driven by risk aversion, easing expectations and falling interest rates, gold and silver prices are expected to see a stronger round of gains, with gold prices expected to break through $2,000 per ounce and hit all-time highs。