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Revenue growth and market optimism fuel TSMC stock surge

TSMC's revenue growth and market optimism fuelled a 3.54% surge in shares, but the overall market performance was mixed.

Revenue growth and market optimism fuel TSMC stock surge

On the latest trading day, TSMC's stock price rose by 3.54%, reflecting investor optimism. The overall market showed mixed performance, with some stocks experiencing fluctuations amid economic data releases and global market volatility.

Recent developments concerning TSMC have shown significant progress and positive prospects. TSMC reported a sharp 33% increase in revenue for June, driving a 3% rise in its stock price. Additionally, quarterly sales grew by 40%, surpassing market expectations. This strong performance is attributed to robust global demand in the semiconductor industry. Investors and analysts are eagerly anticipating TSMC's second-quarter earnings report scheduled for July 18.

Specifically, TSMC's advanced node pricing has exceeded market forecasts, pushing its stock price to new highs. Market speculation regarding TSMC's price hikes has been ongoing since the Computex Taipei in early June.

Initially, analysts believed that only high-performance computing customers like Nvidia could bear a 10% increase in wafer prices. However, it is now evident that other consumer electronics manufacturers may also face higher-than-expected price hikes.

The latest supply chain insights indicate that TSMC's advanced nodes may face capacity constraints by 2025. Hence, customers unwilling to accept price hikes may find it challenging to secure the necessary production capacity.

As for its key customers, Apple and Nvidia continue to be major contributors to TSMC's revenue, particularly in supporting AI infrastructure. Recent reports indicate that TSMC's 3-nanometer nodes are expected to operate at 110-115% utilization rates in the second half of 2024, with 4-nanometer and 5-nanometer nodes nearing full capacity.

In terms of pricing, TSMC is expected to increase the average selling prices of its chips by 4% for 3-nanometer chips and by 11% for 4-nanometer and 5-nanometer chips by 2025. In contrast, prices for mature technology nodes (16 nanometers and above) are expected to remain stable due to sufficient capacity. Analysts at major investment banks now predict an overall 5% increase in TSMC's wafer business prices by 2025, a significant revision from earlier forecasts of 2%.

Capital expenditure plans are also under scrutiny, with TSMC expected to potentially increase its spending to between $30 billion and $32 billion, depending on potential savings in equipment procurement costs. The company anticipates a revenue growth of approximately 20% in 2024, driven by sustained demand for AI technology.

Despite rumors of price cuts for TSMC's 7-nanometer technology, experts attribute this to gradual customer migration from older nodes to more advanced technologies. In the first quarter, 7-nanometer nodes accounted for 19% of TSMC's revenue, a share expected to decline as capacity for 3-nanometer production expands next year.

Overall, TSMC's recent performance and strategic initiatives highlight its leadership in the semiconductor industry. The company continues to benefit from high demand across multiple technology sectors and plans to leverage advanced technology to drive future growth.

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