Key points:

• The decline in consumer confidence index in June reflects ongoing economic concerns.
• The current situation index has risen, indicating that consumers have different views on the current situation.
• The decrease in future expectations index indicates potential recession concerns.

Overview

Despite some improvement in the current labor market, consumer confidence in the United States slightly decreased in June, reflecting continued concerns among consumers about the future economic situation. The Consumer Confidence Index of The Conference Board decreased from 101.3 in May to 100.4 in June.

Status assessment

Consumer perceptions of the current business and labor market conditions exhibit mixed results:

• The current situation index has risen from 140.8 to 141.5.
• Proportion of consumers reporting "good" business conditions from 20.8% to 19.6%.
• The proportion of consumers who believe that jobs are "sufficient" has increased from 37.0% to 38.1%, while the proportion of consumers who believe that jobs are "difficult to find" has slightly decreased to 14.1%.

Decline in future expectations

The future expectation index indicating consumer expectations for income, business, and labor market conditions has decreased to 73.0, lower than May's 74.9:

• The proportion of consumers expected to improve business conditions has decreased from 13.7% to 12.5%.
• The proportion of consumers expected to deteriorate slightly decreased from 16.9% to 16.7%.
• The proportion of consumers expected to increase employment opportunities has decreased from 13.1% to 12.6%, and the proportion expected to decrease jobs has decreased from 18.8% to 17.3%.

Revenue and Financial Concerns

Consumer expectations of future income worsened:

• The proportion of consumers expected to increase their income has decreased from 17.7% to 15.2%.
• The proportion of consumers expected to experience a decrease in income has slightly increased from 11.5% to 11.7%.
• The outlook on the family's financial situation in the next six months has become less optimistic.

Inflation and consumption plans

The inflation expectation for the next 12 months has slightly decreased from 5.4% to 5.3%. The high prices of food and groceries remain the main concern. Despite the continued optimism in the stock market, 48.4% of people expect prices to rise, but only 23.5% expect prices to fall.

In addition, plans to purchase commodities such as housing and cars are still relatively low, but there is a slight increase in intention to purchase home appliances and smartphones. Domestic vacation plans have increased, but still below pre pandemic levels.

Market Outlook

The decline in consumer confidence, especially in future expectations, indicates a cautious market outlook. Continued concerns about income and business conditions, coupled with moderate improvements in the labor market, suggest potential challenges for the future. Traders should remain vigilant, especially if there are further signs of weakness in the labor market.