The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is about to release the latest revision of non-farm payrolls data, and the market expects that the growth rate of non-farm payrolls in the past year ending in March this year may be significantly lowered. JPMorgan Chase predicts that the revision will be about 360,000, while Goldman Sachs believes that it may be as high as 1 million.

If the actual revision exceeds 501,000, it will be the largest drop in 15 years, showing that the cooling of the labor market is greater than expected, which may have an impact on the remarks of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Conference.

The revision of non-farm payrolls data may increase market concerns about the slowdown of US economic growth and raise concerns about a recession. In addition, it may also lead to escalation of market concerns about the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

The latest data shows that the number of new jobs in the United States is about 242,000 per month. Even with the maximum downward revision of 1 million predicted by Goldman Sachs, the number of new jobs per month is still in a healthy range, but the growth rate has slowed significantly.

At the same time, the unemployment rate rose from 3.7% in January 2023 to 4.3% in July 2024, showing growing signs of a weak job market. This trend has affected market expectations for the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy this year, and Federal Reserve officials may consider lowering interest rates by 1 to 2 points at the September FOMC meeting.