On February 27, Xiaomi Automobile officially launched its flagship SU7 Ultra. The standard version sells for 529,900 yuan. It also launched two optional configurations,"Racing Set" and "New North Limited Edition", in an attempt to "compare performance with Porsche, technology is closely following Tesla, and luxury is comparable to BBA" redefines the standard for luxury electric vehicles.This move not only marks a key step for Xiaomi in the closed loop of "people, cars, and homes" ecosystem, but is also regarded as a milestone in its high-end strategy.However, in the highly competitive new energy vehicle market, can Xiaomi achieve the leap from a technology giant to a high-end automaker with the SU7 Ultra?Behind this is not only the confidence of technological accumulation, but also the hidden market risks and strategic games.

From a financial perspective, Xiaomi's investment in high-end and automotive business has formed a long-term strategic layout.According to Lei Jun's disclosure at the Xiaomi 15Ultra press conference, Xiaomi's R & D budget in 2025 will exceed 30 billion yuan, of which AI and related businesses account for about 25%, and the total R & D investment in the next five years is expected to reach 105 billion yuan.This figure far exceeds the R & D intensity of traditional automobile manufacturers, highlighting Xiaomi's attempt to achieve differentiated competition through technology-driven.Specific to the SU7 Ultra, it is equipped with a super three-motor system (comprehensive power of 1548 horsepower), a track version of the high-power battery pack and 5.2C ultra-fast charging technology, all based on Xiaomi's self-developed motor, battery and high-voltage platform.Behind these technological breakthroughs is continued high R & D investment, but it may also put pressure on short-term profit margins.According to Omdia data, Xiaomi's market share of high-end mobile phones above US$600 increased slightly from 5% to 6% in the fourth quarter of 2024, indicating that penetration of the high-end market still remains challenging, and whether the high investment in the automotive business can be transformed into sustainable returns remains to be observed.

Market sales expectations for the SU7 Ultra are divided.Lei Jun set the annual sales target of 10,000 units and declared that he was "90% sure."The rationality of this goal needs to be combined with market positioning analysis: the pre-sale price of the SU7 Ultra is as high as 814,900 yuan (the limited edition pricing has not been announced), far exceeding the 300,000 yuan range of the regular version of the SU7, aiming at ultra-high-end performance car segment.Horizontal comparison, in 2024, Porsche Taycan sales in China will be only 1829, Tesla Model S will be 324, and BMW M-Series sedans will be 3074. The total of the three is less than half of the SU7 Ultra target.However, Xiaomi's confidence stems in part from its pre-sale performance-the SU7 Ultra received orders for 3680 units within 10 minutes of opening the reservation, and Weibo voting showed that more than 90% of participants were optimistic that its annual sales exceeded 10,000 units.This contrast reflects the potential energy of Xiaomi's brand and the transformation potential of users 'basics, but it is also necessary to be vigilant about whether the "fan economy" effect of pre-sale orders is sustainable.

The complexity of the competitive landscape further exacerbates market challenges.Direct competitors to the SU7 Ultra include the Extreme Krypton 001FR (0-100km/h acceleration of 2.02 seconds), the Tesla Model S Plaid (peak power of 1020 hp), and the Porsche Taycan Turbo GT.These models have advantages in brand accumulation, technological maturity and user perception, and Xiaomi's core competitiveness lies in its intelligent integration capabilities.The SU7 Ultra is equipped with Qualcomm Snapdragon 8295 chip, Xiaomi HyperOS system and dual Orin X smart driving chips (computing power 508TOPS), which attempt to build experience barriers through ecological linkage (such as seamless connection with mobile phones and home devices).However, competing products such as the Geyue 07 are equipped with a 35.6-inch integrated large screen and a mature smart driving system, while the Smart S7 relies on Huawei's Hongmeng cockpit to form differentiation, which means that Xiaomi needs to continue to increase its software iteration and user scenario innovation.

From the perspective of financial models, the pricing strategy of the SU7 Ultra implies multiple considerations.If it is estimated based on the sales volume of 10,000 units and the average price of 600,000 yuan, the annual revenue of this model is approximately 6 billion yuan, which is equivalent to Xiaomi's total revenue of automobile business in 2024 (estimated to be approximately 90 billion yuan based on the delivery target of 300,000 units for the SU7 regular version).Although the proportion is limited, its strategic significance is to increase the brand premium and pave the way for subsequent models.It is worth noting that the gross profit margin of Xiaomi's automotive business has not yet been disclosed, but referring to the industry benchmark Tesla's gross profit margin of 22.5% of the automotive business (2024Q4 data), SU7 Ultra's high-performance configuration and limited strategy may help improve the profit structure.However, R & D amortization, channel construction (such as the expansion of offline experience stores) and supply chain costs (such as carbon ceramic brake discs and ternary lithium batteries) may erode profit margins, especially in the early stages of production capacity climbing.

Policies and market trends provide structural opportunities for Xiaomi.The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has exceeded 40%, and the policy side continues to increase charging infrastructure and purchase subsidies, and demand for high-end electric vehicles shows a growing trend.Xiaomi's SU7 regular version will sell more than 300,000 units in 2024, proving its acceptance in the mid-to-high-end market, and the launch of the SU7 Ultra can be seen as a test of the brand's ceiling.In addition, Xiaomi's Internet genes make it more flexible in user operations (such as social interaction, OTA upgrades) and sales models (online booking + offline delivery), which contrasts with the 4S store system of traditional car companies.However, luxury car consumers are more sensitive to the after-sales service network and brand history. Xiaomi needs to make up for its shortcomings in dealer cooperation and after-sales response.

The risk points that investors need to be vigilant about are concentrated in three aspects: First, technical iteration risks.The rapid evolution of core components of electric vehicles (such as solid-state batteries and 800V platforms) may shorten the technology window period of the SU7 Ultra; second, market demand fluctuates.The impact of the economic cycle on ultra-high-end consumption is more significant. If the macro economy is under pressure, the order conversion rate for limited models may be lower than expected; third, competition will become fierce.Local brands such as NIO and Krypton are accelerating their high-end layout, while traditional giants such as BBA are also increasing investment in electrification transformation, and the market diversion effect may intensify.

To sum up, the launch of Xiaomi SU7 Ultra is not only an expansion of its product line, but also a key battle for its transition from a cost-effective label to a technology luxury brand.In the short term, the achievement of the sales target of 10,000 units depends on the dual support of core fan groups and performance car enthusiasts; in the long run, whether a moat can be established in terms of intelligence, ecological collaboration and user experience will determine the valuation of Xiaomi's automobile business. Reconstruction space.For investors, it is recommended to pay attention to delivery data, gross profit margin changes and R & D investment conversion efficiency starting from Q2 2025. These indicators will reveal the final outcome of this big bet.