The market is waiting for the US July CPI data to be released on Wednesday.

Stabilizing prices and preserving jobs are the Fed's two main goals, and weak employment progress will boost confidence in the Fed's rate cut.

Among the six traditional manufacturing industries in the United States, only the chemical products industry has achieved growth.

According to the dot plot released by the Federal Reserve yesterday, seven members support one rate cut this year, and eight members support two rate cuts this year.

U.S. inflation continues to warn, and OPEC says latest supply cuts are blocked, with a combination of headwinds causing oil prices to fall。

On Thursday (March 14), U.S. stocks fell, with chipmaker stocks falling for the second day in a row, while a rise in the PPI caused investors to worry that the Fed may cut interest rates later than expected.。

Whether the Fed raises interest rates or not has been the focus of Wall Street and investors.。In June, the Fed hinted that it might raise interest rates early, from 2024 to 2023.。

The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book survey shows that the U.S. economy has shown a moderate expansion since the beginning of the year, but consumers' sensitivity to rising prices has increased significantly。

After its January 31 meeting, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep interest rates unchanged, a move that was in line with market expectations and reflected the Federal Reserve's (Fed) continued focus on inflation.。

JOLTs Job Openings report shows strong US job market, job growth beats expectations, shows economic vitality。

The U.S. general economic environment is currently quite good, the recession that investors have avoided has not occurred, and consumer confidence in durable goods has reached a three-year high.。

Recently, inflation data from many countries in the US and Europe have been better than expected.。But as several countries have joined the battle for the "last mile" of inflation, many central bankers have repeatedly said that the "last mile" will be more difficult.。

On November 14, the U.S. Department of Labor released October U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) data.。Data show that, affected by the decline in energy prices, the United States in October CPI rose 3.2%, compared with 3 in September.The 7% level has slowed significantly, while falling below market expectations of 3.3% level。Ring growth reduced to 0.0%, also lower than expected and previous values。Some institutions are beginning to predict when the Fed will cut interest rates.。UBS Investment Bank's latest forecast is that the Fed will cut interest rates as early as March and by 275 basis points for the whole of next year.。The agency believes that while the U.S. economy has shown resilience this year, the risks that exist this year will come next year.。U.S. measures against inflation and rising unemployment will affect economic output next year, and the U.S. is expected to fall into recession in the second quarter of next year。

On November 1, local time, the Federal Reserve took the lead in announcing that interest rates would remain unchanged。To be honest, the Fed made this decision is not surprising, one is that inflation in the United States has been much lower than a year ago, the effect of raising interest rates has been shown, and the other is that the Fed's interest rates are now at a high level for more than 20 years, and then add to the U.S. economy may be overwhelmed。The dust has settled on the US side, and now it's up to the UK side to follow, if two consecutive developed country central banks have announced a suspension of interest rate hikes, it is estimated that the global interest rate hike cycle is not far from the end.。But the British side of the situation and the United States is not the same, the United States side, interest rate hikes to raise interest rates, the U.S. economy has hardly been much affected this year, employment is still strong, wages are rising, and even in the first half of this year, U.S. stocks also out of a wave of bull market。But the British side is different, the Bank of England in this round of radical interest rate hikes have tortured the British economy out of breath, manufacturing, services, both wings of the decline in employment, the number of corporate bankruptcies increased significantly, if in this case the Bank of England still dare to continue to raise interest rates, there are only two possibilities, first, the Bank of England is too brave, and inflation blood to fight to the end, second, the Bank of England is

I thought the epidemic was over and the bitter days of the big American banks could come to an end, but I didn't think the nightmare of these big banks was just beginning.。Although the epidemic is over and the U.S. consumption and investment and labor markets are slowly recovering, the Fed's high interest rate policy is still taking off, strangling the U.S. economy, with U.S. banks bearing the brunt。Recently, according to a U.S. banking filing, the five largest U.S. banks, in addition to JPMorgan Chase, have cut a total of 20,000 jobs since this year, and the road to layoffs is likely to continue.。There are two reasons for these big bank layoffs, the first is the high interest rate policy in the United States that we just mentioned.。Don't underestimate the impact of high interest rates on banks, high interest rates will seriously impact the bank's lending business, raising lending rates, so that high interest rates on loans will scare off a large number of potential loan customers.。Loan interest income is an important source of bank income, if the income of this sector is greatly reduced, it is almost a disaster for banks.。The second reason is estimated that no one thought of another reason for the layoffs of major banks this year is that the employees of these banks have not changed jobs this year, resulting in the number of employees of these banks seriously exceeded expectations.。You know, job hopping is a common occurrence in Wall Street investment banks, and it's common to move to a better position after a few months in an investment bank, and very few people will work in a position for more than two years.。However, these employees seem to have agreed this year, that is, a radish a pit, to stay in their own station does not go.。The reason is still related to high interest rates, the financial situation is not good, Wall Street people are not willing to risk jumping to the next position, in case I am not as good as how to do？

On September 20, local time, the minutes of the Fed's latest monetary policy meeting showed that the Fed decided to slow the pace of interest rate hikes in September, keeping the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.Between 50%。Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at a press conference after the day's meeting that there is "a long way to go" to control inflation, and the Fed will focus on the risks posed by high inflation to the United States in the coming time.。Since March 2022, the Fed has raised interest rates 11 times intensively to curb high inflation, raising them from near zero to 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level in 22 years。

New York University professor Roubini, who has always been known for his pessimistic comments, has come out to speak out again, and this time, he has warned the market that he will make a big move to short U.S. stocks。Roubini gave a number of reasons for the decline in U.S. stocks, but the most central one was "inflation."。Roubini estimates that high oil prices will raise inflation levels for some time。If inflation is too high, the Fed and other central banks will have to continue raising interest rates, hitting the market.。Roubini says U.S. stocks will fall another 10% during the year under the central bank's blow。In addition, Roubini also cited a number of risks that could lead to a downturn in the U.S. economy, including lagging monetary policy and credit risk, and said these risks could hit the U.S. economy as it recovers and drag down U.S. stocks.。Unlike in the past, Roubini's prediction does not seem to have made any waves in the market because the accuracy of the Doomsday Doctor's prediction has been compromised in the recent past.。In July last year, Roubini had confidently predicted that it would be difficult for the U.S. economy to achieve a soft landing, but the situation is clearly much better than he expected, the U.S. economy is not as he expected to be hit by the harsh inflation management, the S & P 500 index has risen more than 16% this year。Faced with this miscalculation, the Doomsday Doctor was slow to admit his mistake。He said that although the United States does not appear to have a real hard landing, but there may still be a so-called "bump landing."。The so-called "bumpy landing" refers to a brief and slight recession in the United States.。Anyway, it's impossible to admit your mistake, but from a "hard landing" to a "bumpy landing," this wave of shifting is for Roubini to play with.。

Recently, the U.S. economy short-term frequent, first Buffett on U.S. stocks to a wave of "shore fire," in the second quarter of a large cash and buy short-term Treasury bonds, hoarding a large amount of cash, and then the "big short" prototype Bury to buy U.S. stock index put options。The market is concerned that after eating a wave of meat in the first half of this year, more and more Wall Street bigwigs will leave the market in the future。Among the many losers, Wermuth Asset Management's views are particularly radical。Not only are the U.S. stock and property markets at risk of collapse, the company said, but the U.S. economy is also likely to shift rapidly from inflation to deflation。Wermuth gives three reasons, first, the S & P 500 has risen 16% since the beginning of the year, while the earnings outlook for many companies is too weak to support their current share prices, and a price collapse may be inevitable, which Wermuth describes as "dangerously overvalued."。Well-known investment bank Morgan Stanley also said that if the collapse comes, U.S. stocks could fall as much as 16%。Second, the U.S. real estate industry seems calm, but it is in crisis, on the grounds that the industry has about 1..$5 trillion in debt coming due and it's going to be a massive debt tsunami。Moreover, interest rates in the U.S. are currently relatively high, and it's not easy for real estate developers to refinance, and with the huge amount of existing debt, the U.S. real estate market could be dragged straight into trouble.。According to Kai Investment Macro's estimates, if house prices do see a plunge, the decline could reach 40%。Third, there is another objective factor in the decline in U.S. inflation, which is that the economy is gradually slowing down。In the U.S., for example, over the past year, the Fed has raised policy rates rapidly and significantly reduced the size of its balance sheet to fight inflation.。In Wermuth's eyes, factors suggest that the U.S. may be about to experience a precipitous decline from inflation to deflation。

Beginning in March 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates a total of 11 times in an effort to curb high inflation, rapidly raising the benchmark interest rate to the current 5 in more than a year..25% -5.50% level, can be described as quite radical。It stands to reason that an increase in a country's benchmark interest rate will lead to less liquidity in the market, more difficult for financial institutions to access funds, and a slow cooling of the economy.。Looking at it this way, it's only natural that Americans' lives should be turned upside down during such an aggressive rate hike cycle, but according to a recent survey, it doesn't seem like their lives have been greatly affected.？The answer to this question has to do with how the interest rate on the loan is settled.。Generally speaking, there are two ways to settle the interest rate of loans, one is the fixed interest rate system, in this model, consumers can lock in the interest rate of their own loans, no matter how the external environment changes, the level of consumer debt is relatively fixed, almost unaffected;The other is a floating rate system, in which the level of consumer debt correlates to the level of macro interest rates because floating rate debt resets periodically as the benchmark rate rises。In other words, the main impact of the Fed's rate hike is on consumers who adopt a floating rate system, while the impact on fixed-rate loans is relatively limited。Because, from 2008 until last year, the Fed has kept policy rates at historically low levels, so the big smart people in this period have prioritized a fixed exchange rate system.。This allows them to lock in interest rates on consumer loans at low levels first, which can effectively reduce the impact of changes in the external environment。According to Moody's Deputy Chief Economist Cristian deRitis, most consumer debt among U.S. households is fixed-rate, with nearly 70 percent of them having mortgage rates below 4 percent.。

Just into August, the U.S. Treasury Department exploded a big thunder: the world's leading rating agencies announced that the U.S. long-term foreign currency issuer default rating from AAA to AA +, as never play unprepared battle Fitch, but at this time announced the downgrade, exactly why？Market participants believe that Fitch's final decision to downgrade the U.S. default rating of the "fuse," is the U.S. Treasury Department released on July 31, the third quarter of the U.S. financing plan.。Under the plan, the U.S. Treasury will borrow about $1 trillion in debt in the third quarter of 2023, nearly $300 billion more than previously announced plans to issue debt.。That's not all, and on top of that, the U.S. is expected to borrow about $852 billion more in debt in the fourth quarter, which will be another debt surge of nearly $100 billion.。Faced with such a high debt scale, the U.S. Treasury Department said there are two main reasons for the huge debt issuance, first, the current low cash balance in the fiscal deposit account, and second, the expected future fiscal revenue is low, but the expenditure is higher.。It's an indisputable fact that the U.S. government is high on fiscal denunciations in 2023, so where did all that money go?？Based on data for the first nine months of fiscal 2023, there were four projects with large year-on-year increases in fiscal spending for the year.。First, net interest expenses, the sharp increase in this expenditure is mainly due to the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes, raising the cost of debt during the year;。