HawkInsight

  • Contact Us
  • App
  • English

Odds slashed to zero of 50bp Fed rate cut in November after strong September payrolls

anyaberkut Traders on Friday wiped out odds of the Federal Reserve delivering a large rate cut of 50 basis points in November after September payrolls growth blasted through expectations. The Labor Department said U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew 254K in September, well beyond the estimated 132.5K. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% vs. 4.2% expected. The probability of a half-point cut sank to 0%, according to the CME FedWatch tool late Friday. The odds were 32.1% on Thursday. The chance of a standard 25bp rate reduction jumped to 97.2% from 67.9% a day ago. Traders were also starting to price in the chance of the Fed standing pat next month, with odds at 2.8% vs 0% a day earlier. The Federal Open Market Committee last month slashed the fed funds rate by 50bp to 4.75%-5%, with slowing in the job market and policymakers' aim to avoid a hard economic landing factoring into its 11-1 vote. The FOMC's decision to cut by 50bp was a \"mistake,\" Larry Summers, former Treasury Secretary, said in post on X (formerly Twitter), after the fresh jobs report outstripped expectations. The August payrolls print was upwardly revised to 159K +142K. In the markets Friday, Treasury yields soared on the prospect of a smaller rate cut in November relative to September. The 10-year yield (US10Y) jumped 12 basis points to 3.97%. The 2-year yield (US2Y) climbed 21 basis points to 3.93%. Stocks (SP500)(SPY) (COMP:IND) (DJI) closed higher.

Disclaimer: The views in this article are from the original author and do not represent the views or position of Hawk Insight. The content of the article is for reference, communication and learning only, and does not constitute investment advice. If it involves copyright issues, please contact us for deletion.

NewFlashHawk Insight
More