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Goldman raises 12-month S&P 500 target to 6,300, lifts 2025 EPS growth view to 11%

quantic69 Goldman Sachs on Friday raised its 12-month target for the S&P 500 (SP500) to 6,300 to 6,000, and upgraded its 2025 view on corporate per-share earnings expansion. A 6,300 target is 9.5% away from the S&P 500’s (SP500)(SPY)(IVV) close at 5,751.07 on Friday. With the third-quarter earnings season set to rev up, the investment firm lifted its 2025 S&P 500 (SP500) per-share earnings forecast to $268, representing +11% year/year growth. It previously projected 6% growth of $256. Goldman’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin also introduced a 2026 EPS forecast of $288 (+7%), and held its 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (+8%). “The primary driver of the upward revision to our 2025 EPS estimate is greater margin expansion,” Kostin said. “We expect sales will grow by 5%, roughly in line with nominal GDP growth (vs. 4% previously).” Goldman’s Portfolio Strategy Research desk now expects 78 basis points of net margin expansion in 2025, compared with 24 bp previously. “The macro backdrop remains conducive to modest margin expansion, with prices charged outpacing input cost growth,” Kostin said. The firm said its revised forecasts imply a 3-month S&P 500 (SP500) price target of 6,000, and a 12-month price target of 6,300 vs. 6,000 previously. The S&P 500 (SP500) is up ~21% YTD. Kostin recently said the U.S. election in November is a barrier for the benchmark to reach 6,000 before the end of 2024. S&P 500 (SP500) ETFs that investors can track include (VOO), (SSO), (UPRO), and (SDS).

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