Key points:

• The US personal income and expenditure report released this week will be key data that will affect the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts.
• French election news and German economy will affect buyer demand for EUR / USD.
• The inflation data in Australia may force the Federal Reserve of Australia to raise interest rates.

Dollars

On Tuesday (June 25th), the US Consumer Confidence Index will kick off the US dollar market this week. The decline in consumer confidence may affect consumer spending, thereby suppressing demand driven inflation. If the decline in consumer confidence index exceeds expectations, investors may increase their bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September.

On Wednesday (June 26th), real estate data will attract investor attention. The improvement of the real estate market can support consumer confidence and spending. However, tight inventory may push up rent, exacerbating property services and overall inflation.

On Thursday, June 27th, investors will focus on unemployment benefits applications, GDP, and durable goods order data.

The upward trend of durable goods orders will support the expectation of an economic soft landing. The unemployment benefit application data in the United States may affect market sentiment towards the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. The tightening of labor market conditions will support wage growth and increase disposable income. The increase in disposable income will drive consumer spending. In addition, unless the first quarter GDP data is revised, the unemployment benefit application data may be more influential.

The personal income and expenditure report released on Friday (June 28th) will be the key data. The downward trend in personal income and expenditure, as well as weak data on the core PCE price index, may further drive expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September.

In addition to data, investors should also pay attention to comments from members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Opinions on inflation, economic outlook, and timing of interest rate adjustments may affect market trends.

Euro

On Monday (June 24th), the German Business Climate Index will affect demand for euros/dollars. After the weaker than expected private sector PMI data in June, the decline in business sentiment may drive market expectations for the European Central Bank's interest rate cut in the third quarter of 2024. The downward trend of business prosperity may affect employment, consumer confidence, and private consumption.

On Wednesday, the German GfK consumer confidence index will once again become the focus. Among them, the sub item data of consumer purchase intention will have a certain influence. The consumer purchase intention index in June remained sluggish, challenging expectations of improved economic prospects.

On Friday, German retail sales and unemployment data will affect investors' bets on the third quarter rate cut by the European Central Bank. The decline in retail sales and a weak labor market environment may suppress demand driven inflationary pressures.Other data includes inflation data from France, which may play a key role in investors expecting inflation to weaken.

In addition to economic data, investors should also pay attention to French election news and central bank comments.

Pound

The Bank of England will release its financial stability report on Thursday, which may lead to fluctuations in the pound.

The negative views in the report may affect demand for the pound, especially as the UK prepares for elections. The comments of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey are worth paying close attention to.

On Friday, UK GDP data may also affect the pound. A strong UK economy may give the Bank of England more time to ensure inflation returns to its target.

CAD

On Tuesday, Canada's inflation data will be the key data release, which will affect the short-term trend of the Canadian dollar. The weakening of inflationary pressure may prompt the Bank of Canada to discuss further interest rate cuts. The Bank of Canada is the first central bank in the G7 to lower interest rates in a new round of policy easing.

On Friday, the GDP data for April will also attract investor attention. However, by comparison, inflation data is still more crucial for the Canadian dollar.

AUD

For the Australian dollar, this is a crucial week as inflation data may force the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to unexpectedly raise interest rates.

On Tuesday, Australian consumer confidence data will be the focus. The decline in consumer confidence may affect spending, thereby suppressing demand driven inflation. A milder inflation outlook may alleviate the pressure of RBA rate hikes.

Key monthly CPI indicators for Australia will be released on Wednesday. The rising inflationary pressure may trigger speculation in the market about RBA rate hikes. Last week, RBA President Michele Bullock warned that board members had discussed raising interest rates to curb inflation.

On Thursday, consumer inflation expectations will be released. Higher consumer inflation expectations may increase market bets on RBA rate hikes.

On Friday, private sector credit data will be released. An unexpected decrease in credit demand may raise concerns about an economic recession. Weak credit demand will affect consumption and the Australian economy.

NZD

New Zealand's economic indicators could affect investor bets on Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate cut and demand for NZD / USD.

On Monday, trade data will attract investor attention. Improved trade conditions may indicate a rebound in demand. New Zealand's trade accounts for over 50% of GDP. Better trade conditions may boost the New Zealand economy and the New Zealand dollar.

On Friday, business and consumer confidence will be the focus. The trend in consumer confidence may have a more direct impact on the RBNZ interest rate path and the New Zealand dollar. The improved consumer confidence environment may drive expenditure and demand driven inflation.

JPY

For the Japanese yen, this week is also a crucial week as it enters the intervention range.

On Monday, the Bank of Japan's opinion summary will allow investors to understand the Bank of Japan's willingness to raise interest rates. In a recent speech, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda talked about the Bank of Japan's data dependence. However, other members of the board of directors are not as firm in their stance on interest rate hikes, hinting at a rate hike in 2025.

On Friday, Japan's economic data will affect investors' expectations of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in July. Key data includes:

• Tokyo Inflation Data
• Retail Sales Data
• Job Application Ratio
• Unemployment Rate
• Industria Production Data

Due to the Bank of Japan's focus on private consumption and demand driven inflation, inflation and retail sales data will have a greater impact on Japanese yen demand.

In addition to data, investors should also pay attention to the comments of the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan may start issuing interest rate hikes to boost the yen.

China

Investors should pay attention to the relevant activities of the People's Bank of China. In the context of weakened expectations for stimulus plans, further economic support measures may drive demand for risky assets.

Peter Alexander, founder and Managing Director of Z Ben Advisers, recently shared his views on the fiscal stimulus package: "Over the past year, people have been talking about China's need for large-scale fiscal stimulus. But you know, China did this in 2008/09, resulting in some quite bad long-term effects. They don't want to do it again."