Putin is willing to talk to Trump about ceasefire, and has a tough stance on territory and NATO issues

According to Reuters, citing five sources familiar with the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin is open to discussing a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine with U.S. President-elect Trump. But Putin ruled out the possibility of major territorial concessions and insisted that Kiev must abandon joining NATO, positions that became major obstacles to the agreement.

Freezing the front line may be an option, and there is room for some territorial divisions

Sources familiar with the matter revealed that Russia may accept the current freezing of the situation on the front line as a basis and negotiate on the territorial division of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhne and Kherson. But the Crimean issue is not within the scope of discussion. In addition, Russia may be open to withdrawing troops from some small areas of Kharkiv and Nikolayev, but will never withdraw from core control areas.

US military aid strategy exacerbates conflict complexity

Current U.S. President Biden has approved Ukraine's use of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to attack targets within Russia, further escalating the conflict. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that military facilities in Bryansk Oblast had been attacked, which Russia considered a "dangerous escalation." Sources warned that the Biden administration's military aid could make the peace plan more distant and even prolong the duration of the war.

Russia has conditions to accept the security agreement, but the restrictions are strict

Russia may be willing to negotiate providing security guarantees for Kiev, but only if Ukraine abandons military expansion, limits the size of its force, and promises not to restrict the use of Russian. At the same time, Russia made it clear that it would not allow NATO troops to be stationed in Ukraine.

The old draft agreement may become the foundation, and permanent neutrality is mentioned

Some sources mentioned that the April 2022 Istanbul draft ceasefire agreement may still serve as the basis for future negotiations. The draft stipulates that Ukraine must commit to permanent neutrality in exchange for security guarantees provided by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. Putin has publicly stated that the draft can be used in future peace agreements.