"Fool baths" reappears in the Jianghu Ternrero calls for a pause in interest rate hikes, Britain and the United States to erase this week's gains
Turnrero compared his hawkish colleagues in the Bank of England to "fools in the bathroom" to show that the Bank of England lacks patience for such aggressive rate hikes, and that excessively high interest rates will only hurt the British economy.。
Opening remarks by Silvana Tenreyro, member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, at the 38th National Bureau of Economic Research's Macroeconomic Research Conference, April 20-21。In his opening address, the famously dovish quoted the late Nobel laureate in economics Milton Friedman's "bath for fools" analogy as a call for the Bank of England to ease monetary policy.。
Turnrero likens his hawkish colleagues in the Bank of England to "fools in the bathroom," who, by the way, should wait for the hot water to heat up when they wait for the hot water to take a bath, but they turn it up so high that they get scalded.。Turnrero wants to use this to illustrate the Bank of England's lack of patience with such aggressive rate hikes, and that excessively high interest rates will only hurt the British economy。
News has suggested that Mr Turnrero's analogy is seen as a backlash against his colleague Catherine Mann, who has said firmly that core inflation is on the rise and the Bank of England must act.。
Prior to Turnrero's speech, the Bank of England had raised interest rates 11 times in a row, raising the benchmark interest rate to 4.25%, the most aggressive rate hike cycle in the UK in 40 years。News that the Bank of England is considering a further 25 basis points for its interest rate decision on May 11, following a series of strong data releases。
Turnrero said that the current high inflation rate is mainly due to rising energy prices and the lag in monetary policy, and that the most likely scenario is that under the current monetary policy, the UK's inflation rate will be well below the 2% policy target in the medium term (2025).。
She further noted that as monetary policymakers, we need to be flexible enough not to stick to the 2% inflation target in any economic scenario, but to keep an eye on the medium-term performance of the economy.。Monetary policy needs to be based on the economic outlook, and the current economic outlook suggests that our tightening has gone too far.。
In terms of policy tools, Turnrero is confident of the "arsenal" in the hands of the Bank of England.。She stressed that we directly use the bank interest rate as a marginal tool of monetary policy, so we can directly see the impact of deflation on the market, which helps us to adjust at any time according to market conditions。
Turnrero is one of nine members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee and is expected to attend two more policy meetings during his tenure.。Her last two voting choices in May and June will be especially important as there are now growing calls for the Bank of England to suspend interest rate hikes。
As a dovish representative, Turnrero still called on her colleagues to ease monetary policy in the final stages of her term, and her lively speech is destined to go down in history。Such figurative metaphors don't seem to be common in Bank of England official speeches。Some analysts pointed out that Turnrero's "unconventional" this time, just reflects the gradual deepening of the internal debate of the Monetary Policy Committee, quite a "saber-rattling" trend.。
As of press time, the UK and US are down 0 on the day..47%, reported 1.23,853, essentially erasing the week's gains。
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