On June 15, local time, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the monthly rate of U.S. sales for May, the first important economic data released after the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate ceiling in June.。Because consumption accounts for the largest share of U.S. GDP, the data is also known as "horror data" by the market.。

In its updated Fed economic forecast yesterday, the bank raised its median U.S. GDP growth forecast for the full year 2023 from 0 in March..4% to 1%, which has essentially reduced the risk of a U.S. recession.。

And last night's retail sales did not disappoint the market, following an increase of 0 in April..After 4%, May again grew 0.3%, higher than the expected value of -0.1%。According to the data, sales increased in 10 of the 13 retail categories in this report, with increased spending on construction materials and automobiles.。Even against the backdrop of rising prices and interest rates, Americans continue to spend, thanks to a still dynamic job market and pent-up savings, the analysis said.。

Separately, according to another data released last night, U.S. jobless claims recorded 26 last week.20,000, in line with the revised previous value, but slightly above market expectations of 24.90,000 people。

In terms of data alone, the previous report was positive for the dollar, which hit the dollar.。

However, yesterday's strength of the euro helped the bulls in Europe and the United States to weigh on the dollar.。Specifically, according to the Fed's interest rate decision yesterday, after 10 consecutive rate hikes, the bank decided to suspend the pace of rate hikes this month to assess the effectiveness of Fed policy since the rate hike cycle.。The ECB, for its part, raised the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3 on the same day, as expected by the market..5%, refinancing rates at 4%, a 22-year high, determined to keep inflation down。

Mark Wall, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, wrote in the report: "Our basic expectation is a final 25 basis point hike in July, bringing the end rate to 3..75%, but upside risks remain。He added: "This ECB press conference has hawkish elements, especially the central bank's revision of its 2025 inflation forecast, but there are also dovish elements."。President Christine Lagarde made it clear that a July rate hike was highly likely, but avoided talking about September's policy guidance.。"

As the euro accounts for the largest proportion of the dollar index, reaching nearly 60%, yesterday's hawkish action by the European Central Bank led to a sharp strengthening of the trading day in Europe and the United States, implicating the U.S. index lower, spot gold prices in the case of the Federal Reserve to give a hawkish dot plot recorded a climb。

Specifically, the euro rose 1 percent against the dollar yesterday..07%, recorded 4 consecutive positive, closed at 1.09451; the dollar index fell by 0 on the day..84%, closed at 102.16, down to an intraday low of 102.08, the lowest since May 15, while spot gold rose 0 per cent during the day..8%, hitting the $1,960 / oz mark upward in the day.。

For the spot gold outlook, MKS PAMP SA metal strategy director Hills (Nicky Shiels) said the Fed injected more uncertainty for further rate hikes, which is not conducive to gold bulls.。At the July meeting, data will become more sensitive and important。

Joseph Cavatoni, managing director of the World Gold Council's U.S. region, said gold will continue to struggle in the short term as the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, but remains a strategic asset to address potential financial market risks.。He also noted that while the upside for gold prices may be limited throughout the summer, no significant declines in gold prices are expected.。

Quant Insight's Huw Roberts, for his part, argues that there are potential risk events that could return gold's safe-haven appeal to the market.。He added that in terms of the overall environment, gold remains sensitive to credit spreads in the short term.。Also, if credit spreads start to widen due to economic concerns, gold could attract some bullish attention。

Singapore trader GoldSilverCentral's Brian (Brian Lan) said: "The Fed is expected to raise interest rates twice during the year, gold prices are under pressure, and the market may face more selling, the next support level at $1920.。He added that with prices fluctuating within a certain range, the Fed more or less gave the market a sense of direction.。

As of press time, spot gold rose slightly in the day 0.22%, currently traded in 1962.$40 / oz, basically regaining ground lost this week。