On March 10, Cointelegraph reported that although the March 10 cryptocurrency fear and greed index continued to show "extreme fear", a Bitcoin market simulation still predicts a bullish trend in the second half of 2025. Cryptocurrency researcher Mark Quant used Monte Carlo simulations to analyze Bitcoin prices and provide a six-month forecast for the crypto asset. The Monte Carlo model is a calculation method that simulates price forecasts and evaluates risks through random sampling. It can generate multiple possible scenarios based on variable factors such as volatility and market trends. Based on an initial price of $82,655, the study estimates that the average final price of Bitcoin to the end of September 2025 will be $258,445. However, from a broader perspective, Bitcoin prices are expected to fluctuate between $51,430 (or the 5th percentile return) and $713,000 (the 95th percentile return). However, it is important to note that the Monte Carlo model relies heavily on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, which assumes that asset values follow random paths with constant drift parameters. In this analysis, Bitcoin's inherent volatility is incorporated into the model, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future changes. Essentially, Monte Carlo analysis is as uncertain as a "roll of dice". Last week, Quant also highlighted the correlation between total cryptocurrency market capitalisation and the global liquidity index, indicating that total market capitalisation could reach a new high of more than $4 trillion in the second quarter of 2025.