As electrification has opened a new round of revolution in the automotive industry, the industrial metal materials behind electric vehicles have also attracted more and more attention from the market.。Among them, the "heart" of electric vehicles - battery-related metal material lithium is the most concerned by the market。In addition, the market trend of electric vehicle related metals has also received more and more attention from investors, and copper is one of them。

Copper is the most conductive base metal, coupled with its corrosion resistance, ductility, etc., so that it is widely used in electric vehicles。Such as wiring harnesses for electric vehicles, drive motors, copper foils that act as carriers for negative active materials and negative current collectors in lithium battery structures, etc.。In addition, charging piles for electric vehicles also require a lot of copper.。

It is reported that the copper consumption of a traditional fuel vehicle is about 17kg, while a new energy electric vehicle needs to consume 60-90kg of copper, which is 3 to 4 times that of a traditional car.。For charging stations, a common high-power DC charging pile can use up to about 60kg of copper.。

According to the estimates of Orient Securities, driven by huge demand, by 2025, the market size of China's electric vehicle battery copper foil, wiring harness copper, motor copper rod and charging pile copper will reach 34.5 billion yuan, 18.8 billion yuan, 8 billion yuan and 3.1 billion yuan.。

Goldman Sachs, which expressed optimism about copper as a commodity late last year, expects copper prices to hit a record high in 2023, surpassing the record high of $10,845 a tonne set in March 2022.。Although Goldman Sachs firmly believes that copper prices will rise, copper prices have been relatively sluggish since 2023 due to weaker demand from traditional industries such as construction and consumer goods, and have not ushered in the surge Goldman had expected.。

While the reality is a bit of a "slap in the face," Goldman seems to be sticking to its view。On May 25, at the 20th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum, Nicholas Snowdon, managing director and head of metals research at Goldman Sachs headquarters, said in a speech that commodities will enter a new supercycle due to the demand for raw materials for green development, and copper metal will be the darling of a new supercycle.。

On June 8, Citi made a similar point.。With the use of electric vehicles and renewable energy surging, investors could flood the copper market on an unprecedented scale in the coming years, Citi said.。

In an interview, Max Layton, managing director of commodities research at Citi, said that copper is fast becoming the commodity of choice for investors seeking exposure to the energy transition, and that once the global growth outlook starts to improve, they are likely to rush in quickly.。

That will set the stage for a buying spree as orders flood in from carmakers and grid operators。The bank predicts that increased allocations by index-tracking investors and hedge funds could help boost net long positions in the copper market to about 4 million tonnes by 2025, with a sharp reversal in bearish sentiment.。That would equate to about a fifth of global supply, double the pre-2021 peak.。

Citi said the automaker's increasing hedging activity could add a further million tonnes to its long position as usage begins to soar.。It will bring a lot of money to the futures market at a time when demand in the physical sector is starting to outpace supply, helping to push copper prices to record highs.。

According to Leighton, "If you want to enter the commodity market in low-carbon trading, the only commodity that is really liquid is copper, and copper is the most liquid.。He even said the next bull market in copper could be stronger than the bull market in oil in 2008 because of its uniqueness.。

As a result, the bank advises investors and consumers to start buying as soon as possible, with copper prices remaining around $8,300 per tonne (about RMB 59,200) at this stage due to the weak economy.。Citi said copper prices could fall further in the near term, but should begin to rebound within six to 12 months, and in the most optimistic scenario, copper prices will peak at about $15,000 in 2025.。

In early 2022, copper prices soared to a record near 1.$10,000 due to a surge in demand during the outbreak, which left the industry seriously understocked, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which raised concerns about supplies from Russian copper.。But the rally was interrupted in March 2022, with copper prices falling sharply in June-July and plunging again in May this year.。

Leighton said current market sentiment had deteriorated to the point where investors on the London Metal Exchange (LME) turned bearish on copper for the first time in three years.。Even so, copper has fared far better this year than some other industrial commodities such as zinc or oil.。

In addition to demand growth, supply shortages are also an important reason why many big banks are bullish on copper.。

Rising battery metal prices in the past few years have prompted automakers to partially abandon rare and unstable metals such as cobalt in favor of iron and other more abundant materials.。And copper is not as affected by this change as battery chemistry。

Glencore said earlier this year that a severe copper shortage was looming, but large mine development was lagging behind.。According to Glencore's estimates, under the International Energy Agency's (IEA) net-zero emissions path, the world will be short of more than 50 million tons of copper between 2022 and 2030.。The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2030, in the field of electric vehicles alone, the mining industry will need to produce at least 2 million tons of copper per year to meet the demand.。

Citi said the main long-term risk for copper is that its dominant position as an electrical conductor is challenged by new cost-effective superconductors.。

But at this stage, the higher mobility of copper also attracts more investment than other battery metals such as lithium and nickel.。Demand from automakers and other consumers will gradually exceed the market's supply, while the accelerated launch of electric vehicles and renewable energy will attract a large number of investors。

"You have no idea how high the price would be in that environment.。"The whole market is going to bounce back, but overall, from the historical context, you can easily see it at 1.".$20,000 to $1.Within the $50,000 range。"

LME copper up 0 as of press time.27%, to 8,313 per ton.5美元。

Eagle Statement: This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment and operational advice.。Special reminder, the article is original content, without permission may not be reproduced。