On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced a pause in rate hikes, keeping the policy rate at 3.6% level。

After the news, the Australian dollar fell 0 against the dollar in the short term..3% to 0.6765 美元。

The RBA said there was a lag in monetary policy and that the impact of the previous sharp rate hike had not yet been fully felt, so it decided to keep rates unchanged this month to allow more time to assess the impact of the rate hike and the economic outlook, but the central bank reiterated that further monetary policy tightening may be needed in the future to ensure that inflation returns to target levels。

In addition, the RBA said that global inflation remains high, but has slowed overall, while the banking crisis in Europe and the United States has led to financial market volatility, which is expected to lead to tighter financial conditions, which will have an additional negative impact on the global economy.。As for the Australian economy, inflation has peaked and commodity prices are expected to slow in the coming months to about 3 per cent by mid-2025, while economic growth will be below trend for years to come.。

As the RBA statement was quite hawkish, Commerzbank (CBK) said that the RBA kept the monetary policy rate at 3.60% unchanged, but the Australian dollar weakened sharplyUnlikely, because the rate hike cycle is not yet over。The bank said the Australian dollar fell slightly after the resolution was announced because market participants had expected a rate hike.。In addition, the bank does not rule out the possibility of further rate hikes。

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) said that if the RBA interest rate decision is in line with expectations, the bank will maintain Australia's current tightening cycle terminal interest rate of 3.85% of the forecast。However, the bank also does not rule out that the rate hike cycle is over, with interest rates peaking at 3.6%, the possibility that the interest rate cut channel has been opened。The bank also said it expects the RBA to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2023 and a further 50 basis points in the first half of 2024.。

Remarkably, RBA BankFor the first major developed country central bank to suspend interest rate hikes since the banking crisis broke out。Previously, the RBA has raised interest rates 10 times since May last year, a total of 350 basis points.。