Following the debt ceiling crisis in May this year, the U.S. government is once again facing a major test。This time, Congress needs to pass a total of 12 appropriations bills before the federal government can have discretionary spending and federal agency funding for the next fiscal year.。

On September 30, the US government will meet the deadline again.

With the current federal fiscal year ending on September 30, the U.S. government is at risk of another shutdown if Congress does not pass all 12 appropriations bills or a temporary appropriations agreement designed to bail out by the deadline。

And the same as the debt ceiling crisis in May, behind the U.S. shutdown crisis, there is a "familiar" bipartisan dispute.。At present, the two parties in Congress on the "12 appropriations bill" negotiations have not made substantial progress, but the leaders of both parties in Congress agreed that a temporary funding agreement is needed to bail out the U.S. government's shutdown crisis.。

Under the interim appropriations agreement, the U.S. federal government will receive temporary funding through Oct. 31 at the cost of an 8 percent cut in spending by federal agencies, but the cuts do not include defense funds, veterans' affairs and disaster relief funds.。

As with the May crisis, ultra-conservative Republicans want to knock on the Democratic government by cutting the size of federal funding, so the launch of this temporary funding deal is facing a lot of resistance.。

According to media reports, at least 10 hardline lawmakers have already declared their opposition to the package。In their eyes, the 8% cut is far from enough, and they want to see the federal government cut spending more dramatically and stop funding for the investigation of former President Trump, as well as blocking spending on previous Ukraine aid programs.。

According to the operating mechanism of the U.S. Congress, if the 10 lawmakers refuse to let go, it will be difficult for this temporary funding agreement to pass in Congress.。There are also sources who suspect that Democrats may not be receptive to the slightly harsher interim funding deal。

What does the US government shutdown mean?？

For now, Wall Street is optimistic about the U.S. government's shutdown crisis.。There are two reasons, one is that the U.S. government has not suffered a shutdown for the first time in history, optimistic that the two parties reached a last-minute agreement to avoid a shutdown crisis;。

In its report, Bank of America said it expects Congress to pass a temporary funding bill on Oct. 1 to avert a government shutdown.。However, it was a close call and the situation remains unstable。We think the likelihood of a brief shutdown is edging closer to 50 percent, but for now, we expect Congress to come to some sort of last-minute agreement on a temporary appropriations bill。

It's worth noting that if the U.S. government does shut down, it doesn't mean that all its employees will be able to "force a holiday."。The federal agencies will still leave a minimum number of "essential employees" to work for the state without pay.。These "essential employees" typically include law enforcement and prison employees, Transportation Security Administration employees, Border Patrol, Forest Service firefighters, and Weather Bureau forecasters, among others.。

The economic impact of the U.S. government shutdown is also subtle.。While the event is unlikely to have a fatal impact on the U.S. economy, the longer the shutdown lasts, the heavier the negative impact on the U.S. economy will be.。

Goldman Sachs analysis says economic growth will fall directly by about 0 per week of full government shutdown.15 percentage points; including the impact of the private sector, the impact on economic growth may be about 0 per week..2 percentage points。However, in the quarter after the reopening, economic growth will not be affected.。Bank of America analyst Stephen Juneau also said in the report that the economic growth impact of the government shutdown is moderate, about 0 per week..A GDP growth rate of 1 percentage point, reduced government spending on goods and services will also have a secondary impact。

The U.S. government shutdown could also lead to a series of delayed economic data releases.。For now, the data that may be affected are: September non-farm payrolls, CPI, "terror data," PCE and third-quarter U.S. GDP and other important data.。The absence of these data will have an important impact on the integrity of market access to information.。

In addition, the above data is also an important indicator used by the Fed to judge the economic situation, which will be no small challenge for the Fed, which is currently highly concerned about economic data.。