On September 25, in the face of a possible shutdown crisis in the U.S. federal government, international rating agency Moody's has issued a warning that a government shutdown would have a negative impact on U.S. credit ratings。To date, Moody's is the only one of the world's three largest rating agencies to still give the U.S. the highest AAA rating.。

On August 5, 2011, Standard & Poor's announced that it would downgrade the U.S. AAA-rated long-term sovereign debt rating by one notch to AA + due to issues such as the debt ceiling crisis, the first time the U.S. has lost its 3A sovereign credit rating since S & P began its sovereign rating in 1941。

On August 1 this year, Fitch downgraded the U.S. long-term foreign currency debt rating from AAA to AA + due to the expected fiscal deterioration in the U.S. over the next three years and the high and growing overall government debt burden, the first downgrade of the country since Fitch first released its U.S. credit rating in 1994.。

If the U.S. loses Moody's 3A rating again this time, the U.S. credit rating will be downgraded across the board by the three major agencies, which would be a big blow to market confidence.。

Specifically, Moody's senior vice president William Foster said in a note yesterday that while "debt service payments will not be affected and a brief government shutdown is unlikely to disrupt the economy, it will highlight the weakness of U.S. institutions and governance relative to other AAA-rated sovereigns."。"

The passage suggests that while Moody's did not verbally threaten to downgrade U.S. credit, it bluntly expressed concerns about the ability of U.S. institutions to handle the shutdown crisis。It is worth noting that Moody's did not change its credit rating and outlook for the United States in its latest report.。

The report also said that the government shutdown, following the US federal debt ceiling "brinkmanship war" earlier this year, would demonstrate that in a period of declining US fiscal strength, growing political polarization due to persistent fiscal deficits and deteriorating debt affordability continues to impose significant constraints on the formulation of US fiscal policy.。

This is another focus of the market in this shutdown crisis - the bipartisan struggle.。According to analysts, Moody's latest report suggests that the debt sustainability of the United States and the politics surrounding it will continue to be a theme for the rest of the year.。

At present, the two parties in Congress on the "12 appropriations bill" negotiations have not made substantial progress, but the leaders of both parties in Congress agreed that a temporary funding agreement is needed to bail out the U.S. government's shutdown crisis.。Under the interim funding agreement, the U.S. federal government will receive interim funding through October 31 at the cost of an 8 percent cut in spending by federal agencies.。

In Congress, however, far-right Republicans in the United States don't want to just let go of Biden's Democratic administration.。They have been very tough in demanding cuts in U.S. government spending, including a significant reduction in massive additional aid to Ukraine.。Not only that, but according to reliable sources, these Republican right-wing forces have aligned themselves with Trump to sternly oppose the budget deal that House Speaker McCarthy, also a Republican, reached with the Biden administration in the middle of this year.。

As a result, the contradictions of this shutdown crisis have gradually shifted from a tussle between the federal government and Congress to a tussle between Democrats and Republicans, a covert rivalry between Biden and Trump, and a dispute between the far right within the Republican Party and House President McCarthy - moving from economic issues to political issues, which seems to have become a fixed pattern for the U.S. federal government when it needs economic support。

In the face of gridlock and wrestling, it seems that the Biden administration can't think of a way to break the situation for a while。On September 22, the White House has instructed federal agencies to prepare for a shutdown; many analysts believe that the probability of a U.S. government shutdown on October 1 is roughly 100%。

If the U.S. government does shut down, it doesn't mean that all its employees will be able to "force a holiday."。The federal agencies will still leave a minimum number of "essential employees" to work for the state without pay.。These "essential employees" typically include law enforcement and prison employees, Transportation Security Administration employees, Border Patrol, Forest Service firefighters, and Weather Bureau forecasters, among others.。

According to the Travel Industry Association of America, the government shutdown will cost the U.S. tourism industry 1% a day..$400 million。Goldman Sachs analysis says economic growth will fall directly by about 0 per week of full government shutdown.15 percentage points; including the impact of the private sector, the impact on economic growth may be about 0 per week..2 percentage points。