Analysts Expect BYD To Outsell Tesla in 2024
Given that demand for electric cars continues to soar in China while stagnating in the U.S. and Europe, industry researcher BI notes that BYD is on track to outsell Tesla in electric car sales this year.
Given the sustained surge in demand for electric vehicles (EVs) in China, while demand remains stagnant in the US and Europe, industry research firm BI recently indicated in a report that BYD's EV sales are expected to surpass Tesla's this year. In January, BI had projected that Tesla would continue to lead BYD until 2030.
Michael Dean, BI’s Senior Automotive Analyst for Europe, noted in the report that the stagnation of demand for pure electric vehicles in Europe and the US means that internal combustion engine vehicles (including hybrids) will regain popularity. This will extend the profitability of traditional automakers such as General Motors, Volkswagen, and Ford, and drive these companies to engage in further stock buybacks or merger activities.
Earlier this month, a report by market research firm Counterpoint Research also showed that global sales of pure electric vehicles are expected to exceed 10 million units in 2024, with BYD expected to surpass Tesla in EV sales.
On July 23, local time, Tesla reported disappointing quarterly profits, with sales far below the same period last year, and indicated that the anticipated sales growth rate for 2024 would decline significantly.
BI analysts believe this suggests that Tesla’s initially set annual growth target of 50% is increasingly difficult to achieve, and the company’s long-term success will depend on the yet-to-be-released, more affordable mass-market Model 2.
Meanwhile, BYD has continued to grow this year, benefiting from substantial domestic market discounts. The shipment of electric and hybrid vehicles approached 1 million units in the second quarter. In the fourth quarter of last year, BYD's sales of pure electric vehicles reached 526,400 units, surpassing Tesla's 484,500 units.
For the whole of last year, Tesla led with global EV sales of 1.81 million units, while BYD, with annual sales exceeding 3 million units, had 1.575 million units in pure electric vehicles, placing it in second place.
In the long term, BI forecasts that BYD will maintain its lead over Tesla in sales until 2027, after which Tesla is expected to reclaim the top spot in 2028, with Volkswagen, currently in third place, gradually closing the gap with the top two.
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