In a report released this week, Goldman Sachs pointed out that global oil demand will continue to grow for at least the next 10 years. The slowdown in electric vehicle sales will keep demand for oil products strong until 2034.

The bank's analysts have revised their 2030 oil demand forecast from 106 million barrels per day to 108.5 million barrels per day.

Goldman Sachs analysts, including Nikhil Bhandari and his team, have stated that based on current expectations, global oil demand will peak in 2034 and then remain stable until 2040.

They wrote in the report, "We expect oil demand to peak at 110 million barrels per day by 2034. Subsequently, we predict demand to decline at a moderate compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.3% to 2040."

They pointed out that the majority of the global oil demand growth will come from emerging markets in Asia, led by China and India. Currently, most analysts agree that these two economies will be the biggest contributors to global oil demand growth in the next decade.

At the same time, the report also mentioned that the global refining cycle may be longer than investors currently expect. Goldman Sachs predicts that from 2024 to 2027, the global refining utilization rate will remain above the historical average.

Among various petroleum products, the demand prospects for middle distillates (diesel and aviation fuels) are more optimistic than gasoline. Goldman Sachs pointed out, "We are more optimistic about middle distillates because between 2024 and 2027, demand growth for middle distillates lags behind supply growth, partly because we expect the peak demand for middle distillates (in the mid-2030s) to be later than gasoline (in 2028)."

In addition, the Goldman Sachs report also stated that with weak sales, Goldman Sachs research analyst Kota Yuzawa stated that as electric vehicle sales decline, they are increasingly likely to adopt a pessimistic attitude.

The reasons for the slowdown in electric vehicle sales include concerns about the capital cost of electric vehicles, uncertainty in government policies, uncertainty related to election years, and concerns about a shortage of fast charging stations.

Yuzawa pointed out that some car manufacturers are becoming increasingly concerned about range and charging infrastructure, which may lead consumers to reconsider purchasing electric vehicles.