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Is Asmai's 16% plunge due to data leaks?

Asmail didn't even have a chance to hold a phone meeting to explain.

On October 15, U.S. Eastern Time, lithography giant Asmail unexpectedly announced its 2024Q3 financial report in advance.Data shows that in the third quarter of this year, Asmail orders were only 2.6 billion euros, nearly half worse than the market expectation of 5.4 billion euros.

Asmai's earnings report was originally scheduled to be released on Wednesday

Originally, the financial report would be released on Wednesday, October 16, but various financial institutions with great access to the financial results that Asmail will announce "tomorrow" on Tuesday night.Due to the leak of the entire earnings report, Asmai did not even have the opportunity to hold a phone meeting to explain the collapse in earnings. It could only issue a pale statement announcing that the company's early release of earnings was due to a "technical error."

If only Q3 performance declines and expected revenue growth, the market may still see a ray of light.Unfortunately, in the earnings report, Asman CEO Christoph Fukai continued to pour cold water on the market. He said that by 2025, Asmail's total net sales will increase to 30 billion to 35 billion euros (the previous guidance was 30 - 40 billion euros), which is obviously not as good as market expectations.

Affected by the storm in performance, the ADR of Asmai U.S. stocks once fell more than 17%, and finally closed down 16.26% at US$730.43.The company's share price closed down 16% in the Amsterdam stock market, the largest one-day decline since 1998, and was temporarily suspended during the session.

Asmai is also a heavyweight on Nasdaq.At the close, the Nasdaq index fell 1.34%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5.24%, the biggest decline in more than a month.The chip sector ushered in a correction across the board. Intel closed down 3%, TSMC ADR fell 2.64%, Micron Technology fell 3.7%, NVIDIA closed down 4.53%(just hit a new high), AMD fell 5.22%, and Arm Holdings fell 6.89%.

阿斯麦暴跌16% 竟然是由于数据泄密?

What is the explosion in Asmail's performance?

As the "first brother" of European technology companies, Asmai cooperates with almost all the world's top chip manufacturers, including TSMC, Intel, Samsung, Micron, SK Hynix, etc. Therefore, Asmai's financial reports are often seen as a benchmark for chip demand.

Roger Dasen, Asmai's chief financial officer, quickly denied the suggestion that the artificial intelligence chip was stalling.He said there has been a surge in artificial intelligence-related chips, and the problem is the lack of demand in other parts of the semiconductor market, especially logic chips and memory chips.

As the main demanders of Asmail logic chips, Intel and Samsung have been struggling for some time, which has dragged down Asmail's performance.

Dasen explained that in terms of logic chips, the dynamics of competitive wafer OEMs have led to slower expansion of new nodes for some customers, resulting in delays in multiple wafer fabs and triggering changes in lithography demand time, especially in EUV.In the memory space, we see limited new capacity and the focus remains on technology transition to support AI-related HBM and DDR5 needs.

Obviously, in this wave of artificial intelligence craze, not all chip makers will get a share of the cake.Some media said that in the past two years, artificial intelligence has promoted the development of some chip industries, making Nvidia one of the world's most valuable listed companies.Other chipmakers, such as Intel, that are less connected to the AI boom, are facing more difficulties.

阿斯麦暴跌16% 竟然是由于数据泄密?

Attachment: Specific results of Asmai's 2024Q3 financial report:

Full year net sales in 2024: Full year net sales are expected to be 28 billion euros, lower than analysts 'expectations of 27.71 billion euros.

Q4 net sales: Net sales in the fourth quarter are expected to be 8.8 billion to 9.2 billion euros, and analysts expect 8.95 billion euros.

Q4 Gross profit margin: The gross profit margin in the fourth quarter is expected to be 49%-50%, which is lower than analysts 'expectations of 50.5%.

Net sales in 2025: Net sales in 2025 are expected to be 30 billion to 35 billion euros, compared with previous expectations of 30 billion to 40 billion euros. Actual sales are in the lower half range.

Gross profit margin in 2025: The gross profit margin in 2025 is expected to be 51%-53%, which is lower than the company's original forecast of approximately 54%-56%.

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