How difficult is it to get big short sellers to praise U.S. stocks?
Recently, Carson Block, founder of the well-known short seller Muddy Waters, said in an interview that the market can still "close its eyes and buy" large technology stocks in U.S. stocks.
The former well-known big short seller said: "Don't think too much and close your eyes to the stocks of the seven U.S. technology giants (Tesla, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia and Meta). This will be a cost-effective investment.He added,"Over the past few years, I have looked back on my career as an aggressive short seller, done some calculations, and felt that maybe I could have 'long the S & P 500.'”
What makes a big short bear start to sing more than U.S. stocks?
The answer may be hidden in recent positive news.
In the week that just ended, the S & P 500 ended its sixth consecutive week of gains.In the just-started U.S. stock earnings season, U.S. star companies delivered a series of stable corporate profits.Nvidia's announcement also brought infinite reverie to the market.
On the macro level, tightening financial conditions and higher interest rates have not severely damaged the U.S. economy. Instead, they have caused the labor market to show unexpected resilience. The market is increasingly confident in a soft landing of the U.S. economy (especially after entering the interest-rate cycle).The avoidance of systemic risks has also boosted U.S. stocks to a certain extent.
Bullock said that as long as the U.S. labor market is strong, you can't see capital outflows.You will only continue to see a continued influx of money to the most heavily weighted companies in the S & P 500, which are also most likely to move the index up overall.
In addition, the wave of corporate buybacks in the United States will resume in less than two weeks, with billions of dollars in stocks being bought back every day, adding another layer of bullish flow.Data shows that volatility in the S & P 500 has more than halved after August's panic, which will help lure investors back.
The U.S. election is another factor worth considering.Historically, the median return on the S & P 500 has been 5.2 from October 15 to the end of December.However, in an election year, this rate of return could rise to just over 7%.This means that at current levels, the S & P 500 will approach 6,300 by the end of the year.
With multiple positive results, there are signs that investors are beginning to prepare for the year-end rally.In the past week or so, traders have purchased more than 100,000 December $615 SPDR Standard & Poor's 500 ETF call options, which are currently more than 5% above the market.
So far, the S & P 500 index has risen by more than 23% during the year and hit as many as 47 new highs.Last week, nearly one-third of the stocks continued to hit a 52-week high, which was a fairly positive performance.