The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is part of the U.S. Federal Reserve System and meets regularly eight times a year in Washington, D.C., but they can also meet on an ad hoc basis in case of emergency.。At some meetings, the FOMC will also release official economic forecasts。

2024FOMC regular meeting schedule:

Data source: Federal Reserve official website

2024 FOMC meeting results and interest rate trends.

Data source: Federal Reserve official website

Fed policy path since the March 2022 rate hike cycle:

Data source: Federal Reserve official website

Review of the Statement of the Fed's September 2024 Meeting

• Observed slowdown in employment growth

-- "Job growth slows, unemployment rises but remains low。"

- Inflation is moving towards a set target

- "Inflation is moving further towards the FOMC Committee's 2% target, but still slightly above the target。"

- "The Committee has increased its confidence in the sustainability of inflation close to 2 per cent and sees a broad balance of risks to achieving the employment and inflation targets.。"

- Reduction of the policy rate by 50 basis points

--" Given the progress in inflation and the balance of risks, the Committee decided to cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5% to 4.75% to 5%。"

- Reduction of the policy rate by 50 basis points

--" Given the progress in inflation and the balance of risks, the Committee decided to cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5% to 4.75% to 5%。"

"The Committee will carefully assess future data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks as it considers further adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate."。"

--Delete "The Committee does not expect a reduction in the target range until it is more confident that inflation continues to move towards 2 per cent.。

• Added "employment support"

"The Committee is firmly committed to supporting full employment and returning inflation to its 2% target."。"

• FOMC Vote Committee Changes

-- "Delete" Chicago Fed President Goolsby (Austan D..Goolsbee) to vote as an alternate at this meeting。"

--Yes vote: New Cleveland Fed President Hamack (Beth M..Hammack)

--It was Bowman (Michelle W..Bowman), she prefers to cut the target range for the federal funds rate by only 25 basis points at this meeting.

The full analysis of this meeting please refer to: the Fed's September interest rate resolution: the arrival of the unanticipated rate cut policy has a major inflection point.

Review of the Fed's September 2024 meeting press conference

• US growth rate "solid"

--Economic activity continues to expand at a "solid pace" and is expected to grow at a similar pace in the second half of the year to the first half of the year.。"The U.S. economy is in good shape, and our decision today is aimed at keeping it that way.。"

-- "The U.S. economy is currently showing no signs of recession and does not believe a recession is imminent.。"

• About inflation

--" Inflation levels are closer to target, upside risks to inflation have diminished, while downside risks to the labour market have increased.。"

--He did not declare the Fed's victory over inflation, but said he believed inflation would fall to its 2 percent target.。He added: "While people may not be thinking about inflation as often as they used to, they may indeed notice higher prices, which is painful.。"

- There is no fixed interest rate path in the future and needs to be based on data camera decisions

--A 50 basis point cut in interest rates today, with a balance of risk in mind, but without setting any fixed interest rate path, will be met on a case-by-case basis to make decisions.。As usual, Powell reiterated that the next move depends on economic data.。

-- Powell stressed that no one should think that a 50 basis point rate cut is a new trend and should not draw such a conclusion based solely on this rate cut。In other words, don't bet on the next 50 basis points.。

• Good labour market conditions

"The labor market is in good shape and we hope to keep it that way; but if the labor market slows unexpectedly, the Fed will accelerate the pace of rate cuts."。Powell believes that currently 4.The 2% unemployment rate is very healthy, and the higher unemployment rate is partly due to the influx of immigrants, which is also due to a slowdown in hiring.。

- Neutral rates are much higher than before the epidemic; no plans to stop tapering in the near future

--On the neutral rate, Powell said he doesn't know exactly where it is either, but it should be much higher than in the past (before the epidemic).。When asked about the balance sheet, he said that reserves are stable and sufficient and are expected to be maintained for some time, with no intention of stopping the drawdown in the near future.。

The full analysis of this meeting please refer to: the Fed's September interest rate resolution: the arrival of the unanticipated rate cut policy has a major inflection point.

Review of the Statement of the Fed's July 2024 Meeting

• Hold on as scheduled, but a rate cut may be discussed at the September meeting

--" The target range for the federal funds rate remains unchanged as scheduled at 5.25% - 5.5% level, all Fed officials present approve。"

--Powell admitted that a growing number of Fed officials attending this meeting believe that if conditions are met, the next meeting can formally discuss opening a rate cut.。

- Significant changes in the presentation of the economy in this interest rate statement

--In the interest rate statement, the expression of current economic conditions was changed from "employment growth remains strong" to "employment growth has slowed and unemployment has risen."

--Outlook for the future, from "The Committee remains highly concerned about inflation risks" to "The Committee is concerned about the risks of its dual mandate."

The full analysis of this meeting please refer to: the Fed's July interest rate decision: interest rates remain unchanged September rate cut on the agenda

Review of the Fed's July 2024 meeting press conference

• About the September rate cut

--On whether or not there will be a rate cut in September, Powell stressed that the Fed will not make a decision on future meetings and that the decision will still depend on the data (data-dependent), but not on a particular data (data-point-dependent).

--If the data goes as expected, the fastest rate cut could be in September。

--If inflation falls faster, although the economy and employment remain resilient, interest rates may be cut; if inflation is sticky (other things being equal), it may wait longer。

• About the job market

--" The Fed focuses on dual objectives and looks at both conditions equally.。"

"The gradual normalization of the job market is what we want to see."。"

"If the jobs data cools off more quickly than expected, we'll react."。"

• About the economy

In his opening remarks, Powell explicitly described the state of the economy as "strong but not over-heated."。

In addition, it has more than once referred to the indicator "Private Domestic Final Purchases" (PDFP) as an endorsement of the strong economy and demand.。

The full analysis of this meeting please refer to: the Fed's July interest rate decision: interest rates remain unchanged September rate cut on the agenda

Review of the Statement of the Fed's June 2024 Meeting

- Continue to keep policy rates unchanged and make progress in inflation governance

- "In support of its objectives, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% -5.5% interval unchanged。In considering any adjustment to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess the data received, the changing outlook, and the balance of risks。"

- "Modest further progress has been made in recent months towards meeting the Committee's 2 per cent inflation target.。"

- Interest rate dot plot cashing in on upside risk, divergent frequency of rate cuts

-- "Along with a small increase in inflation forecasts, interest rate forecasts are also raised.。Long-term interest rate forecasts continue to be raised by 0 at this meeting following the March increase.The 2% level。"

--1 rate cut during the year (7) vs 2 rate cuts (8)

For a full analysis of this meeting, please refer to the Fed's June 2024 interest rate resolution: even if others cut interest rates, I will not move.

Review of the Fed's June 2024 meeting press conference

- Repeat the risk-balanced management posture again

- "We know that premature or excessive reductions in policy tightening can lead to a reversal of progress on inflation; at the same time, too late or too little reduction in policy tightening can unduly weaken economic activity and employment."。"

Long-term interest rates may be higher.

-- "The view is developing that interest rates are not -- are unlikely to fall to pre-epidemic levels, and based on recent historical data, interest rates were very low at that time.。"

-- "Many officials do believe that interest rates are not back to pre-epidemic levels.。"

Service sector inflation is a cause for alarm, and Americans have high wages.

-- "In some non-housing services, you will see inflation still rising, which may be related to wages, commodity price fluctuations。There has been a surprising increase in the import price of goods, which is a bit difficult to understand。"

For a full analysis of this meeting, please refer to the Fed's June 2024 interest rate resolution: even if others cut interest rates, I will not move.

Federal Reserve May 2024 Meeting Statement Review

- Continue to keep policy rates unchanged, official announcement to slow down tapering

"The Committee believes that the risks of meeting employment and inflation targets are being better balanced."。The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly concerned about inflation risks.。In support of these objectives, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% -5.5%。"

-- "Lack of further progress in meeting the Committee's 2 per cent inflation target in recent months" "The risks of meeting the employment and inflation targets have been better balanced over the past year"。"

---- "Slowing the pace of monthly Treasury reductions from June。In his speech, Powell said that slowing the tapering is not easing, nor does it mean that the total eventual tapering will be smaller than expected, but rather to ensure a smooth transition more gradually。"

The full analysis of this meeting please refer to: the Fed's May interest rate resolution: 6 consecutive times on hold to slow down the pace of tapering from June

Review of the press conference of the Fed's May 2024 meeting

• It takes longer to gain confidence on inflation

- "Will not be satisfied with 3% inflation, will gradually restore inflation to 2%。"

-- "My expectation is to see inflation come down this year, but my confidence is lower。"

• The labor market remains relatively strong, denying stagflation claims。

"The labor market continues to balance, with the latest JOLTS data showing that resignation and hiring rates have returned to normal levels."。Labour demand has cooled but remains strong。"

-- "The U.S. is still at a very healthy level of growth and is not seeing stagflation.。"

- No further rate hikes are contemplated, and a delay in rate cuts is appropriate

-- "The next policy rate hike is unlikely, and will only go if the current restrictions are not strong enough to bring inflation back to 2 percent, but we don't see evidence of that at the moment.。"

-- "The labor market remains strong, but inflation is moving sideways, and it may be appropriate to delay the rate cut."。"

Two paths would make the Fed consider cutting interest rates.

--" Increased confidence to swell back to 2%, or unexpected weakness in the labor market.。"

--" A rise in the unemployment rate above 4% can be considered an unexpected weakness, but a rise in the unemployment rate must be substantial for the Fed to act.。"

The full analysis of this meeting please refer to: the Fed's May interest rate resolution: 6 consecutive times on hold to slow down the pace of tapering from June

Review of the Statement of the Fed's March 2024 Meeting

• Interest rates remain unchanged

"The Committee believes that the risks of meeting employment and inflation targets are being better balanced."。The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly concerned about inflation risks.。In support of these objectives, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% -5.5%。"

• Do not consider cutting interest rates until there is "greater confidence" in lower inflation

-- "The Committee does not consider it appropriate to lower the target range until there is greater confidence that inflation continues to move towards 2%.。"

Slowing down the scale is not far away.

- "The Committee will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasuries, agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans.。The Committee is firmly committed to the goal of returning inflation to 2 per cent.。In addition, we find ourselves in a position to do so. We find ourselves in a position to do so. We find ourselves in a position to do so. We find ourselves in a position to do so. We find ourselves in a position to do so. We find ourselves in a position to do so. We find ourselves in a position to do so. We find ourselves in a position to do so."

• Continue camera decisions and adjust monetary policy as appropriate based on data

"The Committee will be prepared to adjust the monetary policy stance as appropriate."。The Committee's assessment will consider a wide range of information, including labor market conditions, inflationary pressures, inflation expectations, and financial and international progress.。"

The full analysis of this meeting please refer to: the Federal Reserve in March 2024 interest rate resolution: to keep interest rates unchanged to slow down the scale in the coming year or cut interest rates three times.

Review of the Fed's March 2024 meeting press conference

• 2024 rate cut is appropriate

"It would be appropriate to start easing monetary policy at some point this year."。"

-- "We need more confidence that inflation continues to fall before interest rates are cut.。"

-- "The first rate cut has a significant impact.。We can approach this issue with caution and let the data speak。"

-- "If there is significant weakness in the labor market, that would be reason to cut interest rates.。"

• Inflation has not changed the overall picture

-- "January CPI and PCE figures were quite high, but likely due to seasonal adjustment。We will not overreact to these two months of data and will not ignore。"

-- "Despite recent changes in the data, the inflation data does not really change the overall picture, i.e., inflation is gradually going down and the road is a bit rough.。"

- "Looking for data to confirm last year's low reading gives us more confidence that the inflation rate we have seen has indeed continued to decline to 2%。"

• Unemployment is expected to rise

"It's in good shape, and I don't see a crack in the labor market at the moment."。"

"We do expect the unemployment rate to rise.。"

Slow down and shrink the table in sight

-- "It would be appropriate to slow down the pace of tapering soon.。"

- "We are studying the optimal speed and size of a slowdown in tapering and there is no urgent need to make decisions related to tapering.。"

The full analysis of this meeting please refer to: the Federal Reserve in March 2024 interest rate resolution: to keep interest rates unchanged to slow down the scale in the coming year or cut interest rates three times.

Review of the Federal Reserve's January 2024 Meeting Statement

• Interest rates remain unchanged

- "The Commission seeks to achieve 2 per cent employment and inflation over an extended period of time.。In support of its objective, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% -5.25%。"

- Do not consider cutting interest rates until it is determined that inflation is lower.

"In considering any adjustment to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess future data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks."。The Committee does not consider it appropriate to lower the target range until confidence grows that inflation continues to move closer to 2 per cent.。"

• Economic activity has been steadily expanding

-- "Recent indicators show that economic activity has been steadily expanding。Job growth has slowed since the beginning of last year, but remains strong and the unemployment rate remains low.。"

• Relaxed language on austerity

"In determining the appropriate degree of additional policy tightening, the Committee will consider the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lag in the impact of monetary policy on economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial conditions."。"

- The Fed's two main objectives, promoting employment and controlling inflation, are balancing

"The Committee believes that the risks of meeting employment and inflation targets are being better balanced."。Economic outlook uncertain, committee remains highly concerned about inflation risks。"

- Inflation remains high (in line with what was stated at the last meeting)

-- "Inflation has eased over the past year, but remains high。"

The full analysis of this meeting please refer to: the Federal Reserve in January 2024 interest rate resolution: four consecutive times on hold March rate cut is expected to cool down

Review of the Fed's January 2024 meeting press conference

- Interest rates may have peaked, but a March rate cut is not a benchmark scenario

-- "Policy rates are likely to peak during this tightening cycle, and it may be appropriate to start reducing policy restrictions sometime this year."。"

--" When the rate cut starts, whether the cycle starts or the one-time behavior will be determined by future data.。"

-- "March rate cut is not a benchmark scenario。"

- "Balance sheet issues will be discussed in depth at the next meeting, and whether ON RRP is zero does not affect the drawdown process。"

• Inflation is still likely to rebound

"Inflation data for the past six months is a good signal, but more sustained signs of inflation need to be seen."。"

-- "There is a risk that inflation will accelerate again.。"

"We are encouraged by progress in inflation, but we have not declared victory."。"

• Economic growth will moderate

-- "High interest rates also appear to be putting pressure on corporate fixed investment。"

"We expect economic growth to moderate as supply chain and labor market normalization proceeds."。"

• The labour market tends to be balanced

"The labor market remains tight, but supply and demand conditions have continued to balance over the past three months."。"

"We want a strong labor market, not a weak labor market."。"

The full analysis of this meeting please refer to: the Federal Reserve in January 2024 interest rate resolution: four consecutive times on hold March rate cut is expected to cool down

Review of the Statement of the Federal Reserve's December 2023 Meeting

• Interest rates remain unchanged

"The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and 2% inflation over the long term."。In support of these objectives, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% -5.5%。The Committee will continue to evaluate more information and its implications for monetary policy.。"

• Inflation remains high and economic activity growth slows

-- "Inflation has eased over the past year, but remains high。"

-- "The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient.。Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses could weigh on economic activity, employment and inflation。"

-- "Recent indicators suggest that growth in economic activity has slowed from the strong momentum seen in the third quarter.。"

• Relaxed language on austerity

"In determining the appropriate degree of additional policy tightening, the Committee will consider the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lag in the impact of monetary policy on economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial conditions."。"

• Continued reduction in holdings of financial assets

- "The Committee will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasuries, agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans.。The Committee is firmly committed to the goal of returning inflation to 2 per cent.。"

• Continued monitoring of financial indicators

"In assessing the appropriate monetary policy stance, the Committee will continue to monitor the impact of new information on the economic outlook."。The Committee will be prepared to adjust its monetary policy stance as appropriate in the event of a risk that could impede the achievement of the Committee's objectives.。"

"The Committee's assessment will consider a wide range of information, including labor market conditions, inflationary pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international progress."。"

The full analysis of this meeting please refer to: the Fed's December interest rate decision: still standing still to cut interest rates has begun to enter the field of vision

Review of the Fed's December 2023 meeting press conference

• A rate hike is still possible, but Powell himself sees little chance of a rate hike next year

- "The Committee is proceeding cautiously and cannot definitively rule out the possibility of a rate hike at this time."。"

- "The level of interest rates has entered restrictive territory, however, if conditions are right, monetary policy is prepared to tighten further, and policymakers do not want to rule out the possibility of further rate hikes."。"

• Inflation has eased significantly

"The Committee remains committed to its goal of reducing inflation, which, while still high, has eased significantly, and we welcome this progress, but need to see more."。"

-- "Polls show that the average American still lives with high prices, which is something people don't like.。"

Interest rate cuts have come into view.

-- "When is the right time to start loosening existing policy constraints, and this issue is starting to come into view, which is clearly a topic that is being discussed globally and one that we are discussing today at the conference。"

-- "The Fed is willing to cut interest rates even if there is no recession。And won't wait until 2% inflation to cut rates because that will be too late, it will exceed the target, and it will take a while for policy to affect the economy。"

- Recession will affect the rate cut process

-- "There is little reason to think that the economy will fall into recession now, but the possibility of an unexpected event next year cannot be ruled out, and a recession would seriously affect the decision to cut interest rates.。"

• The labour market tends to be balanced

- "The labor market is becoming more balanced, wages have cooled, and while still slightly above the level consistent with 2% inflation, the overall labor market situation is positive."。"

"Job growth remains strong, but given population growth and labor force participation rates, job growth is falling back to more sustainable levels, and the era of severe labor shortages is over."。"

The full analysis of this meeting please refer to: the Fed's December interest rate decision: still standing still to cut interest rates has begun to enter the field of vision

Review of the Statement of the Federal Reserve's November 2023 Meeting

• Interest rates remain unchanged

-- "The Committee seeks to achieve its maximum employment and 2% inflation targets over the long term.。In support of these objectives, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% -5.5%。"

• Inflation remains high

-- "The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient.。A tighter financial and credit environment for households and businesses could weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation。The extent of these effects is uncertain。Committee remains highly concerned about inflation risks。"

• Employment remains strong

-- "Job growth has slowed from earlier this year, but remains strong and the unemployment rate remains low."。"

• Continued reduction in holdings of financial assets

-- "The Committee will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the previous plan.。The Committee is firmly committed to the goal of returning inflation to 2 per cent.。"

• Continued monitoring of financial indicators

"In assessing the appropriate monetary policy stance, the Committee will continue to monitor the impact of future economic data."。The Committee is prepared to adjust the appropriate monetary policy stance if the occurrence of risks would prevent the achievement of the Committee's dual objectives.。"

Review of the Fed's November 2023 meeting press conference

Powell stresses importance of keeping inflation down

"My colleagues and I remain focused on our dual task of promoting maximum employment and stable prices for the American people."。We understand the difficulties posed by high inflation and we remain firmly committed to our goal of reducing inflation to 2 per cent.。"

• Powell expressed satisfaction with current economic activity, but felt the impact of higher interest rates

-- "Recent economic data suggest that economic activity has been growing strongly, much higher than earlier expected.。Real GDP rose 4% year-on-year in the third quarter, driven by a surge in consumer spending..9%。"

-- "After a pick-up in the summer, activity in the real estate sector has leveled off and remains well below where it was a year ago, mainly due to higher mortgage rates.。Higher interest rates also appear to weigh on corporate fixed-asset investment。"

• The labour market remains tight, but supply and demand continue to balance

- "Over the past three months, an average monthly increase of 26.60,000 jobs, a robust growth rate that is still below levels seen earlier this year.。

- "Unemployment remains low at 3.8%。Strong job creation has been accompanied by an increase in the labour supply: the labour force participation rate has risen since the end of last year, with the rise in the labour force participation rate of the population aged 25 to 54 being the most pronounced.。"

-- "Nominal wage growth has shown some signs of easing, with job openings falling so far this year.。Although the gap between employment and workers has narrowed, labor demand still exceeds the supply of available workers.。"

• Inflation remains well above the Fed's long-term target of 2%

-- "In the 12 months to September, the overall PCE price index rose 3.4%。Excluding volatile food and energy categories, the core PCE price index rose 3.7%。"

-- "Inflation has slowed since the middle of last year and the summer values are quite favorable.。But months of good data are just the beginning of building confidence that inflation is continuing to fall towards our target.。The process of keeping inflation down to 2% is a long way off。"

US CPI Inflation Data (YoY):

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

US PCE inflation data (YoY):

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

2023 FOMC Routine Interest Rate Meeting Schedule.

Data source: Federal Reserve official website

2023 FOMC meeting results and interest rate movements.

Data source: Federal Reserve official website