On March 13, the international gold market ushered in a historic moment-COMEX gold futures prices exceeded the US$3000/ounce mark for the first time, reaching an intraday high of US$3,001.5, and spot gold also simultaneously set a new record above US$2990.This milestone took less than three months to reach the starting point of less than US$2700 at the beginning of the year.This golden bull market, driven by multiple factors, is not only a microcosm of global economic turmoil, but also the ultimate interpretation of capital risk aversion logic.

The surge in gold is by no means an isolated incident.From a macro perspective, the dual drivers of risk aversion and inflation expectations constitute the underlying logic of this round of market.

In early March, U.S. President Trump suddenly announced his plan to impose a 200% tariff on EU alcohol products. The sudden escalation of trade frictions between the United States and Europe directly ignited market panic.At the same time, the U.S. CPI and PPI data weakened across the board in February. The cooling of inflation expectations weakened the urgency of the Federal Reserve to further raise interest rates, and the downward pressure on real interest rates was further highlighted.Qu Rui, deputy director of the Research and Development Department of Orient Jincheng, pointed out that this "stagflation easing" environment has forced funds to accelerate into the gold market to hedge policy uncertainty and asset shrinkage risks.It is worth noting that this logic is not a short-term catalyst.Looking back at the fourth quarter of 2024, the Federal Reserve's hesitation in turning monetary policy and repeated geopolitical conflicts (such as the standoff between Russia and Ukraine and the friction between China and the United States) have laid the foundation for gold's long-term upward trend.The continued behavior of central banks around the world to increase their holdings of gold reserves (gold purchases by central banks in various countries will increase by more than 15% year-on-year in 2024) has strengthened the market's trust in gold from a strategic perspective.

Subtle changes in market structure cannot be ignored either.On the technical side, after the gold price broke through the psychological barrier of US$2900 in February, the resonance between technical buying and algorithmic trading pushed the price into a self-reinforcing stage.Technical signals such as the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and Bollinger Band continue to release buy orders, attracting a large number of short-term speculative funds to enter the market.Data from the derivatives market showed open interest in COMEX gold futures surged 22% in the past month, indicating that market participants are leveraging to amplify earnings expectations.This fanaticism even spread to consumer terminals-the price of gold jewelry from brands such as Chow Sang Sang and Laomiao in China exceeded 900 yuan/gram. Some consumers began to regard gold jewelry as "hard currency" that combines wearing and investment functions.At the same time, the A-share precious metals sector moved simultaneously, with stocks such as Huaxi Nonferrous Metals and Shengda Resources rising by more than 5% in a single day, reflecting the revaluation of capital's value on the gold industry chain.

The weak dollar provides extra fuel for the carnival.Although the Federal Reserve has not yet clearly released a signal to cut interest rates, the slowdown in U.S. economic growth and increased debt pressure have caused continued pressure on the U.S. dollar index.Historical data shows that the negative correlation between gold and the US dollar is often amplified in extreme market environments.Since the beginning of 2025, the US dollar index has fallen by 4.3%, while gold has risen by 11% over the same period. The degree of divergence between the two has reached a new high since the 2008 financial crisis.This implicit tax burden of currency devaluation prompted institutional investors, including sovereign funds and family offices, to accelerate the adjustment of asset allocation. Gold ETF positions increased by 58 tons in the second week of March, and the total size was close to the peak level in 2020.

However, undercurrents surged under the feast.The current gold price has implied the market's over-pricing of geopolitical risks and policy shifts.If U.S. economic data picks up more than expected or major central banks coordinate to intervene in exchange rates, gold may experience a sharp correction.What is even more alarming is that the potential risk of some emerging market countries selling gold reserves to stabilize their local currency exchange rates has not yet been fully priced.For ordinary investors, blindly chasing high prices may face the embarrassment of "buying at the peak".Professional institutions recommend adopting dynamic balancing strategies, such as hedging downside risks through gold options, or allocating precious metals with relatively low valuations such as silver and platinum to diversify exposure.After all, when the market ladies in the streets and alleys began to discuss the golden K line, the irrational prosperity of the market may be approaching a critical point.