Hawkinsight Gold Market Daily (1.4) ｜ The path of the Fed's rate cut is unclear. Spot gold fell back to a nearly two-week low.
Spot gold prices retreated 1% to 2037 as the Fed released uncertainty about the path of rate cuts in the minutes of its most recent policy meeting.Nearly two-week low of $61 an ounce。
January 4 (Thursday) Asian morning market, spot gold stopped falling back。
Market Review
On Wednesday, January 3, spot gold prices retreated 1% to 2037 as the Federal Reserve released uncertainty about the path of interest rate cuts in the minutes of its most recent policy meeting..Nearly two-week low of $61 an ounce, the biggest drop since Dec. 11。Dollar index rebounds violently。
Spot gold prices up 0 today as of press time.17%, reported 2046.$36 / oz; dollar index down 0 on day.07%, at 102.42。
l Fed minutes release rate cut uncertainty: the minutes said, participants noted that the outlook for rate cuts "uncertainty is unusually high," further rate hikes are still possible。The minutes also showed that Fed officials appear to be increasingly convinced that inflation is under control and that "upside risks" are diminishing, and that they are increasingly concerned that "overly restrictive" monetary policy could harm the economy.。
l "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos voice: Nick Timiraos says some officials believe the easiest part of fighting inflation is done as supply chains and labor markets recover。That means the Fed simply has to keep interest rates above what's needed to curb the economy。However, there is also a view that the supply-side improvement is likely to continue, but that core commodity prices are likely to rebound, suggesting that further rate hikes may be needed.。
l Fed's Barkin reiterates possibility of further tightening: Barkin says soft landing increasingly likely, but by no means certain。Demand, employment and inflation have all soared but now appear to be returning to normal。He said strong demand does not solve the problem of above-target inflation, which is why the possibility of further rate hikes remains。
l The conflict between Israel and Hamas affects Lebanon: Saleh Aruri, deputy chairman of the Hamas Politburo, was killed in an Israeli drone strike on the southern outskirts of the Lebanese capital Beirut on the same day.。Aruri is Hamas's "number two" and one of the founders of the group's armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, responsible for Hamas operations in the West Bank.。The market pays close attention to the development of the Middle East situation。
U.S. labor market demand is cooling: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Mobility Survey (JOLTS) results show that the number of job openings in November 2023 was 8.79 million, the lowest level since April 2021, below market expectations of 8.85 million, with significantly fewer vacancies in the transportation and warehousing, government, business services and leisure hospitality industries.。
l CME "Fed Watch":Fed leaves rates at 5 in February.25% -5.The probability of the 50% interval being constant is 91.2%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.8%。The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by March next year is 29.2%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut of 64.8%, with a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut of 6.0%。
Technical analysis
Rémy GAUSSENS, director of research at TRADING CENTRAL, said that on the 30-minute line, spot gold is expected to fall restrictively within the day, and technical commentary is that ultra-short term (intra-day) technical indicators run complex trends and should be operated with caution.。
Trading Strategy: Trading Strategy: In 2048..00 below, bearish, target price of 2036.00, then 2031.00; alternative strategy: in 2048.00, bullish, target price set at 2056.00, then 2065.00。Support level: 2036.00,2031.00; resistance level: 2056.00,2065.00。
This week's important schedule
Tuesday, January 2
04: 00 Eurozone December Manufacturing PMI Final Value
04: 30 UK December Manufacturing PMI
09: 45 US December Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Value
10: 00 Monthly Rate of US Construction Expenditure in November
Wednesday, January 3
10: 00 US December ISM Manufacturing PMI
10: 00 US November JOLTs Job Vacancies
16: 30 US API Crude Oil Inventory for Week to December 29
20: 45 China's December Caixin Services PMI.
Thursday 4th January
04: 00 Eurozone December Services PMI Final Value
04: 30 UK November Central Bank Mortgage Permit.
04: 30 UK December Services PMI
07: 30 U.S. December Challenger Corporate Layoffs
08: 15 U.S. ADP Employment in December
08: 30 U.S. to December 30 Initial jobless claims for the week
09: 45 US December Markit Services PMI Final Value
11: 00 US to December 29 week EIA crude oil inventories
11: 00 U.S. to December 29 Week EIA Oklahoma Cushing Crude Oil Inventories
11: 00 U.S. to December 29 Week EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory
Friday, January 5
05: 00 Eurozone December CPI Initial Annual Rate
05: 00 Eurozone December CPI Monthly Rate
05: 00 Eurozone November PPI Monthly Rate
08: 30 U.S. Unemployment Rate in December
08: 30 US non-farm payrolls after December quarter adjustment
10: 00 US December ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
10: 00 U.S. November Factory Orders Monthly Rate
13: 00 Total number of oil rigs for the week from the United States to January 5
* * The above schedule is US Eastern Time (UTC-05: 00) * *
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