On July 4th, international oil prices fell as investment expectations turned cautious due to the impact of US employment and business data, reflecting a decline in demand.

On Wednesday, Brent crude futures rose by $1.10, or 1.3%, settling at $87.34 per barrel; WTI crude futures increased by $1.07, a 1.3% gain, to $83.88. As of press time, Brent crude futures were down 0.73% at $86.70 per barrel; WTI crude futures were down 0.77% at $83.23 per barrel.

Today, Citibank analysts stated in a note to clients that geopolitical and weather conditions continue to strongly support bullish oil prices, but spot market dynamics may gradually weaken. Citibank indicated that due to concerns over hurricane risks, the spot market is currently front-loading September crude oil deliveries, and demand on the oil market may soften in the future.

Another reason for the recent weakness in oil prices is European buyers shifting to West African supplies. It is understood that the European region is importing a large amount of cheaper West African oil, causing shipments of US crude to Europe in June to drop to a two-year low. This situation is not expected to rebound until July or August at the earliest. Additionally, traders taking profits is also an important reason for the recent pressure on oil prices.

However, OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong stated that today's weak Asian market oil prices seem to be more of a form of profit-taking, as WTI successfully held above the key support level of $81.90 per barrel.

According to the latest US data, the number of initial jobless claims increased last week. At the end of June, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time reached a two-and-a-half-year high. The cooling labor market also cast a shadow over this week's oil price trend.

Another pre-farm employment figure was not very encouraging: the US ADP employment number for June increased by 150,000 people, lower than the expected 160,000 and less than the previous figure of 157,000.

Furthermore, the ISM non-manufacturing index, which measures the activity of the US service industry, also fell to a four-year low of 48.8 in June, far below the consensus expectation of 52.5.

The market is looking forward to the weak US economic data to promote the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and lower interest rates may stimulate bullish sentiment in oil prices. Currently, the market has raised the possibility of a rate cut in September from 65% to 74% and priced the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 47 basis points this year. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on Tuesday that the US is back on the "track of falling inflation," but policymakers need more data to verify whether the recent decline in inflation rates accurately reflects the economic situation.

Wong commented that the low-interest-rate environment in the US may at least limit the strength of the dollar in the short term, which is beneficial to the current bullish tendency of WTI.

The Federal Reserve will hold its next policy meeting on July 30-31, and it is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at that time.

Before the meeting, the US will also usher in a series of heavy data for policymakers to refer to. This Friday, the June non-farm employment report is coming; on July 11, the US June CPI inflation data will be released; on July 25 (one week before the meeting), the US Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis will also release the first estimate of the second quarter US GDP.