Global stock markets have rallied this year, providing support for the Fed's turn, China's reopening and Europe's hopes of easing the energy crisis。But inflation remains a persistent problem in the United States, and the signs are beginning to show up again, weighing on markets.。The comments by hawkish Fed officials also raised concerns that US interest rates could peak higher than previously expected.。

JPMorgan Chase & Co.) Equity investors who are too optimistic about the economic outlook are preparing for disappointment, said strategist Mislav Matejka。"Historically, stocks don't usually bottom out until the Fed cuts rates early, and we've never seen a low before the Fed stops raising rates," the strategist wrote on Monday.。"The damage has been done and the radioactive fallout is likely still ahead of us."。"

A team led by Mislav Matejka wrote in a report that it is too early to say that the recession will end after the Fed's aggressive rate hike, especially as the impact of monetary policy on the economy may lag by one to two years.。They said the central bank may only turn in response to a more negative macroeconomic backdrop than the market currently expects.。

Matejka, who said the first quarter could be the highest point for stocks this year, was cautious about the outlook late last year after remaining optimistic for much of 2022.。His team expects the rally to weaken with warning signs from key currency indicators such as a severe inversion of the yield curve and a decline in money supply in Europe and the United States.。

JPMorgan strategists aren't the only ones pessimistic。Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson, who correctly predicted the stock sell-off in last year's Institutional Investor survey, ranked No.。He said in a report on Sunday that the bear market rally "has evolved into a speculative mania based on the Fed's pause / turn."。Last week, Bank of America Corp (BAC), led by Michael Hartnett.) Strategist says delayed arrival of US recession will weigh on stocks in 2H20。

On Monday, Citigroup Inc., led by Robert Buckland,.) strategists say they will not chase the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) global index because it is already trading at the top of its target range。They also said that most reverse trades that call for selling last year's winners and buying losers will fail, adding that they prefer oil stocks to tech stocks that have surged so far in 2023.。