On November 6, as many media estimated that Trump would win the key swing state of Pennsylvania, the basic overall situation of the 2024 U.S. election was set.Republican candidate Trump is about to re-enter the White House and become the 47th President of the United States.

After Trump is elected, how should the logic of American assets be interpreted?Hawk Insight brings you a piece.

According to the previous direct dialogue between the two candidates in the TV debate, in the first debate between Trump and Biden held on June 27, US Eastern Time, Trump clearly prevailed. The market performance was as follows: The S & P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Index surged, the US dollar index strengthened, the US bond yield rose, LME copper rose rapidly, Bitcoin rose, Brent crude oil prices rose slightly, and COMEX gold was obviously under pressure.From this perspective, the so-called "Trump deal" has the characteristics of pushing up the US dollar, pushing up the US bond interest rate, benefiting US stocks, copper, and bitcoin. It has a negative impact on gold prices and a weak impact on crude oil prices.

9. On the 10th, Trump and Harris held another debate. In this debate, Trump was at a disadvantage. The market performance was that the S & P 500 index and the Nasdaq index weakened rapidly after the opening, the US dollar index weakened, and the US bond yield fell, copper and oil prices rose in resonance, Bitcoin fell, and gold prices rose slightly.From this perspective, investors can get a glimpse of the trading ideas of the U.S. election.

From the perspective of Trump's election in 2016, after Trump was unexpectedly elected that year.U.S. bond yields rose rapidly, the U.S. dollar index rose, and U.S. stocks and commodity markets rose.LME copper rose 5.7%, COMEX gold fell 10.0%, and Bitcoin rose 33.8%.It can be said that the weakening of U.S. debt, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks, the strengthening of commodities, and the weakening of gold are typical characteristics of Trump's transactions, which correspond to the strong stimulus expectations of Republicans.

What is slightly questionable is the logic of gold. From the perspective of fiscal expansion, expectations of weak US dollar credit are good for gold prices, but the market believes that rising inflation will stimulate the Federal Reserve's central interest rate to move upwards, leading to an upward rise in US bond yields.As U.S. bonds and gold ETFs are substitutes for each other, investment demand for gold will weaken.However, looking forward to the market outlook, analysts said that if the central bank's gold purchase actions continue, there will still be room for gold to rise in the market outlook.

In terms of industries, after Trump came to power, he has benefited from the financial and traditional energy industries, and has become a market consensus that he has been negative for clean energy. The only variables are the following categories: 1. Air freight logistics, building materials, automobiles and other industries; 2. Trump's tax cuts benefit the rich more, but are negative for essential consumption, medical care and other industries; 3. Trump's contractionary policy towards geopolitics is negative for the defense and military industry.

At present, some media have claimed that Trump won the election.