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U.S. stocks week ahead: focus on May inflation data and Fed decision

This week, the United States will release its core inflation rate and overall inflation rate data for May, while the highly anticipated Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision will also be announced.

This week will be an anticipated moment for the US market, as several major companies are about to release their financial reports. This includes Oracle, Casey's General Stores, GameStop, Broadcom, Adobe, Kroger, and Jabil.

Investors and analysts will closely monitor these financial reports to obtain any signs of the company's financial health and prospects, which may affect market sentiment.

In addition to corporate financial reports, there will also be several key economic events this week that may have a significant impact on the market. The United States will release its core inflation rate and overall inflation rate data for May, while the highly anticipated Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision will also be announced.

In addition, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its economic forecast. These events will be closely monitored to assess their impact on the current rise in the US stock market or whether they will trigger signs of market correction.

At present, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate of 5.25% -5.50% unchanged, which has been maintained since July 2023. Inflation seems to have hit a bottleneck, with an overall inflation rate of 3.4% in April, failing to meet the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. Preliminary predictions indicate that the overall inflation rate in May may remain at a year-on-year level of 3.4%.

Technical analysts point out that the S&P 500 index has downward support near the 50 day moving average. The moving average is a critical level that can typically cushion significant market declines.

Last week, the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points despite their respective inflation rates exceeding 2%. These actions are due to concerns about economic vulnerability. The current key issue is whether and when the United States will follow suit.

This week's economic calendar also includes the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for May. PPI reflects the product prices charged by factories to wholesalers and is an important indicator of inflationary pressure at the production level. In April, the ex factory prices in the United States increased by 0.5% month on month, exceeding the expected increase of 0.3%. The consensus forecast for May is a moderate growth of 0.2%.

In summary, this week will be a crucial week for the US market, with multiple important financial reports and key economic data releases. The Federal Reserve's decisions and forecasts will particularly shape market expectations and trends in the short term.

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