Experts say the U.S. economy has maintained strong growth while inflationary pressures have stabilized, providing some positive signals for the future。Investors need to pay attention to these key data, especially the information on key factors such as sales growth, cost control, and market share expansion in corporate earnings reports to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the current economic situation.。

Recently, inflation data from many countries in the US and Europe have been better than expected.。But as several countries have joined the battle for the "last mile" of inflation, many central bankers have repeatedly said that the "last mile" will be more difficult.。

Faced with this eye-popping initial request, markets are once again predicting that the Fed's rate hike cycle is over。

On November 1, the Federal Reserve is about to announce a new interest rate decision, whether to raise interest rates or not, this soul torture estimates that no one can really answer up。Although according to market forecasts, the possibility of the Fed not raising interest rates on November 1 has been as high as 97%, but, after all, it is a market forecast, you know, until the last minute, no one dares to pack a ticket。Another way to find out the Fed's next policy action is to find out from the speeches of Fed officials, who in many cases, because of their special status, are not convenient to talk too much in public, but they also have times when they spill the beans, so let's take a look at the Fed's top leader, Powell's latest statement.。There is no doubt that Powell's advocate is to raise interest rates, and his main concern is that the U.S. labor market is hot.。Some people wonder, isn't it a good thing that the labor market is hot and everyone lives and works in peace and contentment?。Powell doesn't think so, as the governor of the U.S. central bank, he doesn't care if your people live in peace or not, in his eyes, there is only one goal, and that is to keep inflation down.。As long as inflation rises, then I'm going to do everything I can to get it going, and no one can stop me.。The best way to keep inflation down is to raise interest rates, because raising interest rates is like a tranquilizer, and no matter how noisy you are, if I take this shot, you'll lose more than half of your vitality.。

Recently, at a time when traditional fixed-income products - bonds - have been sold off, fixed-income ETFs have attracted many investors, according to BlackRock, in the first three quarters of this year, the United States and Europe listed fixed-income ETFs recorded a record net inflow of $235 billion.。

As we all know, interest rate hikes are the biggest killer of bull markets。In general, a central bank rate hike will lead to a reduction in liquidity in the market, which will have a dampening effect on the overall economy and thus depress the stock market。Now, this round of interest rate hikes in the United States has reached its peak, the impact on the economy is gradually showing, although at the beginning of the year out of a wave of bull market, but the recent performance of U.S. stocks is not very bright。In this case, there are already institutions that are starting to collect rice and even start shorting some areas。According to Goldman Sachs' latest report, as of October 13, hedge funds began selling shares of all types of food, beverage and tobacco companies at the fastest pace in 11 weeks, and it's not over yet, the report also said that these hedge funds have reached their highest level in three months on must-spend character short bets and one of their highest levels in nearly five years.。Typically, hedge funds are already exposed to significant risk by launching a short trade, let alone another sell trade。If consumer goods have to go down in the future, hedge funds will get amplified gains, but if the sector goes up in the future, these hedge funds will also get amplified losses.。So, this all-out bet that the consumer goods industry must go down is okay to play well, and if you don't play well is to push yourself to the fire pit So why are these hedge funds so sure that consumer goods will go down?？The reason is simple, because these stocks typically have higher payout ratios than U.S. Treasury yields, and many investors buy these consumer goods to eat dividends。But with the recent surge in yields on government bonds, the stock payout ratios for these consumer goods are no longer attractive。

As we all know, in order to curb high inflation, the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates like crazy for nearly a year and a half, and interest rates are now at their highest level in 22 years.。Due to the linkage of the financial world, the upward movement of benchmark interest rates has brought a series of chain reactions such as the Treasury market and the real estate market, 10-year U.S. bond yields have soared to historical highs, incidentally, even the U.S. 30-year mortgage rates are slowly rising。Interest rates are the same everywhere, when interest rates are low, everyone wants to get a few houses to fry, when interest rates are high, no one wants to carry a heavy mortgage to do the pick-up man.。In an environment of high interest rates, real estate companies can't sell their houses, banks can't lend them out, and no one has a source of money to make.。So, the U.S. real estate and banking industries recently jointly wrote to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, hoping that the lovely Fed chairman would stop raising interest rates!In the letter, the two industries gave the Fed two demands: first, to stop raising interest rates, which we all understand.。Second, stop selling your mortgage securities on your own initiative, and what does that mean?？In fact, this so-called mortgage security is a group of mortgages bundled together to form a portfolio that is sold on the open market, or MBS for short.。Since MBS is backed by a large string of home mortgages, MBS is also often seen as a relatively high-quality asset, and the Fed has a large amount of MBS in its hands.。When the Fed wants to tighten monetary policy, the Fed sells MBS in the market and returns some of its money to cool the economy。That's why the two industries are proposing in the letter that they want the Fed to stop selling MBS, which would be a major blow to both the U.S. financial and real estate markets.。

Data released by the U.S. Labor Department on the 12th showed that the U.S. consumer price index, or CPI, rose 3.7%。September core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 4.1%。Given the continued easing of U.S. inflationary pressures, financial markets generally expect the Fed's current round of rate hikes to be nearing completion。Since this week, the Fed's vice chairman, governors and a number of Federal Open Market Committee members have said that rising U.S. bond yields have weakened the need for further rate hikes。The latest market in the U.S. federal funds rate swap market shows that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in November has fallen below 10%。

Three major real estate industry lobbying groups called on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell not to raise interest rates further and pledged not to sell mortgage bonds unless real estate financing stabilizes.。The National Association of Realtors, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Home Builders wrote in a letter to Powell on Monday: "We urge the Fed to take these simple steps to ensure that the real estate industry does not have the hard landing the Fed has been trying to avoid.。The three groups said "continued market uncertainty about the Fed's interest rate path" had led to a widening premium on 30-year mortgage rates over the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, saying the spread had now reached an "all-time high."。They said: "This has exacerbated housing affordability and caused additional disruption to the property market, which is already struggling to adapt to a significant pullback in mortgage origination and home sales.。"

This week, the Fed-led "Super Central Bank Week" hit hard.。Beijing time on Thursday, including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Swiss central bank, including 10 central banks will announce interest rate decisions。On Friday, the Bank of Japan "took the baton" debut, its latest interest rate decision touched the nerves of global investors。After more than a year of aggressive rate hike cycles, the global wave of central bank rate hikes is coming to an end。However, the current monetary tightening stance of central banks in developed economies remains firm, and the rebound in energy prices has blocked the fall in inflation, adding a few variables to the path of future interest rate hikes.。Against this backdrop, how long will the central bank rate hike cycle in developed economies continue?？When does the "rate cut" cycle start？There is no doubt that the relevant trends and forward guidance of central banks in developed economies have attracted much attention.。

Anyone who plays with U.S. stocks knows that U.S. stocks have a mysterious "September curse."。The curse refers to the fact that in September, U.S. stocks usually underperform。In addition, some of the biggest disasters in U.S. economic history have largely occurred in September, including the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2007.。Historical statistics, since 1928, the average decline of the S & P 500 in September was 1.1%, is the only average decline of more than 0.13% of the month。What is the reason for the emergence of the magic spell in September?？No one ever made it clear。There's a saying that every September, U.S. short sellers get in and launch capital attacks on higher-valued stocks, but that doesn't stand up to scrutiny either。Of course, U.S. stocks don't fall every September, and historically U.S. stocks have performed well in September。In the three years 2017-2019, the S & P 500 recorded gains in September.。Looking at this year, the September spell for U.S. stocks seems to be manifesting itself, and so far, the S & P 500 has fallen about 0 percent since September..5%。However, the market does not seem to be worried about the event, because after a series of weak data, the market has been convinced that the Fed will not continue to raise interest rates this month, which is undoubtedly good news for the market, because the suspension of interest rate hikes can ensure that the market has more liquidity, the greater the probability of hot money flowing into the U.S. stock market.。When market sentiment is pushed up, U.S. stocks are also likely to see a wave of gains。On the other hand, the stock market is a barometer of the economy, and the resilience of the U.S. economy is also supporting the U.S. stock market to some extent.。Last spring, with the Fed's aggressive rate hikes, many economists believed that the U.S. economy would gradually fall into recession.。But this year, bets on a U.S. recession have fallen significantly, which is another positive for U.S. stocks in September。

Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard just said a pickup in economic activity this summer could delay the Fed's plan to end rate hikes.。Bullard said in an interview, "This (economic) re-acceleration may put upward pressure on inflation, stop the anti-inflation we are seeing, and delay the Fed's plan to shift policy."。Bullard said that if the anti-inflation process stalls or price pressures increase, "it will indicate that the Fed's interest rate level will be higher."。Fed policymakers raised interest rates by 25 basis points last month, setting the benchmark rate at 5.25% -5.Interval of 5%。Officials will see more economic data before their next policy meeting on September 19-20, including each month's non-farm payrolls report and new data on inflation.。Brad said, "I think we are likely to be in a new system with higher interest rates" and "inflation is still above target today."。Core inflation is likely to be sticky and decline at a fairly slow pace. "。

Recently, the U.S. economy short-term frequent, first Buffett on U.S. stocks to a wave of "shore fire," in the second quarter of a large cash and buy short-term Treasury bonds, hoarding a large amount of cash, and then the "big short" prototype Bury to buy U.S. stock index put options。The market is concerned that after eating a wave of meat in the first half of this year, more and more Wall Street bigwigs will leave the market in the future。Among the many losers, Wermuth Asset Management's views are particularly radical。Not only are the U.S. stock and property markets at risk of collapse, the company said, but the U.S. economy is also likely to shift rapidly from inflation to deflation。Wermuth gives three reasons, first, the S & P 500 has risen 16% since the beginning of the year, while the earnings outlook for many companies is too weak to support their current share prices, and a price collapse may be inevitable, which Wermuth describes as "dangerously overvalued."。Well-known investment bank Morgan Stanley also said that if the collapse comes, U.S. stocks could fall as much as 16%。Second, the U.S. real estate industry seems calm, but it is in crisis, on the grounds that the industry has about 1..$5 trillion in debt coming due and it's going to be a massive debt tsunami。Moreover, interest rates in the U.S. are currently relatively high, and it's not easy for real estate developers to refinance, and with the huge amount of existing debt, the U.S. real estate market could be dragged straight into trouble.。According to Kai Investment Macro's estimates, if house prices do see a plunge, the decline could reach 40%。Third, there is another objective factor in the decline in U.S. inflation, which is that the economy is gradually slowing down。In the U.S., for example, over the past year, the Fed has raised policy rates rapidly and significantly reduced the size of its balance sheet to fight inflation.。In Wermuth's eyes, factors suggest that the U.S. may be about to experience a precipitous decline from inflation to deflation。

According to media reports, the minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that Fed officials expressed concern about the pace of inflation at their most recent meeting and said that unless the situation changes, further rate hikes may be needed in the future.。Minutes of the Fed's July meeting show most officials are concerned that the inflation fight is far from over and may require additional tightening action from the Fed。"With inflation still well above the Fed's long-term target and the labor market remaining tight, most participants continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which may require further monetary tightening."。"

Beginning in March 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates a total of 11 times in an effort to curb high inflation, rapidly raising the benchmark interest rate to the current 5 in more than a year..25% -5.50% level, can be described as quite radical。It stands to reason that an increase in a country's benchmark interest rate will lead to less liquidity in the market, more difficult for financial institutions to access funds, and a slow cooling of the economy.。Looking at it this way, it's only natural that Americans' lives should be turned upside down during such an aggressive rate hike cycle, but according to a recent survey, it doesn't seem like their lives have been greatly affected.？The answer to this question has to do with how the interest rate on the loan is settled.。Generally speaking, there are two ways to settle the interest rate of loans, one is the fixed interest rate system, in this model, consumers can lock in the interest rate of their own loans, no matter how the external environment changes, the level of consumer debt is relatively fixed, almost unaffected;The other is a floating rate system, in which the level of consumer debt correlates to the level of macro interest rates because floating rate debt resets periodically as the benchmark rate rises。In other words, the main impact of the Fed's rate hike is on consumers who adopt a floating rate system, while the impact on fixed-rate loans is relatively limited。Because, from 2008 until last year, the Fed has kept policy rates at historically low levels, so the big smart people in this period have prioritized a fixed exchange rate system.。This allows them to lock in interest rates on consumer loans at low levels first, which can effectively reduce the impact of changes in the external environment。According to Moody's Deputy Chief Economist Cristian deRitis, most consumer debt among U.S. households is fixed-rate, with nearly 70 percent of them having mortgage rates below 4 percent.。

On the evening of May 23, the United States announced the initial Markit services and manufacturing PMI for May.。Among them, the initial value of Markit services PMI in May was 55.1, higher than expected, above the boom-bust line, while the initial Markit manufacturing PMI recorded a decline in May, missing market expectations.。

On May 3, local time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting, raising the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5% to 5%..Between 25%。

On the evening of April 27, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released the initial annualized quarterly rate of the U.S. core PCE price index for the first quarter.。Data show that the core PCE price index in the United States in the first quarter of 2023 was 4.9%, higher than expected and previous values。