On September 4, the Chinese economy once again became the focus of the market. In recent years, as the contribution of the service industry to the gross domestic product (GDP) has continued to increase, the proportion of the service industry has been close to 50%, showing its important position in the economic structure.

Caixin Service Industry PMI Decline

In August, the Caixin Service Industry Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 51.6 from 52.1 in July. According to the August survey results:

• The inflow of new work orders increased, but the growth rate slowed down from July.
• Export business accelerated in August.
• Despite the increase in new orders, companies have reduced employment in order to save costs.
• Input prices recorded the largest increase since June 2023, mainly driven by labor costs.
• Output prices fell for the first time after seven consecutive months of growth, and the decline was the largest since April 2022.
• Business confidence has improved.

After China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI performed better than expected on Monday, the private sector PMI data showed mixed signals in the middle of the third quarter of 2024.

August Survey Highlights

Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist of Caixin Insight Group, said: "The August survey showed that business activity and total new orders have grown for the 20th consecutive month, although the growth rate has slowed down from July. Among them, the business activity indicator recorded the second lowest point so far this year. The continued increase in the number of foreign tourists has driven the accelerated growth of external demand, and the relevant indicators have been in the expansion range for the 12th consecutive month."

Market reaction

The service PMI data was lower than expected, and the Hang Seng Index continued its decline, falling from 17,412 points to 17,362 points. As of Wednesday, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.60% to 17,369 points.

Before the release of the PMI data, the Australian dollar rose to a high of 0.67155 against the US dollar, but then fell back to a low of 0.66857. After falling to a low of 0.67004 against the US dollar following the release of the PMI data, the Australian dollar rebounded to a high of 0.67061. On Wednesday, the Australian dollar fell 0.13% to 0.67022 against the US dollar.

Future Outlook

Later on September 4, the US JOLTs job vacancies data also attracted much attention. Economists expect job vacancies to fall from 8.184 million in June to 8.10 million in July. If the data is lower than expected, it may once again trigger investors' concerns about a hard landing of the US economy.

In addition, US trade data and factory orders will also be released during the day. However, due to the market's close attention to the US labor market, the impact of labor market data on market risk sentiment will be more significant.