Evercore ISI analysts said that any attempt by the Trump administration to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell "will lead to a surge in stagflation transactions," but they believe that such an action will be "unlikely" to materialize. It can be seen from the movements of the bond and foreign exchange markets that the market has lost confidence in Trump's economic policies. However, there is no sign that the market has lost confidence in the Fed because indicators of expected inflation remain low. Any move that undermines the Fed's independence will lead to a surge in long-term yields due to inflation risks, a sharp steeping of the yield curve, a collapse in the dollar, and an overall rise in risk premiums, including equity risk premiums, which is likely to directly trigger an economic recession.