Business is expected in the short term iron ore or first up and then down, shock and stable operation; medium and long term or first up and then stable operation, later focus on steel mill profits and the actual demand of the downstream end of the material.。Business news agency said, the downstream steel mills iron ore inventory low, superimposed on the steel mills to resume production, the late release of steel demand gradually strengthened, steel prices rose after the steel mill profits are expected to improve, replenishment operations will continue, good replenishment demand release, coupled with market risk appetite repair, will support iron ore prices continue to rise。However, this week, overseas shipments of cyclical recovery, iron ore supply is strong, and the short-term iron ore market has two risks: first, the release of downstream steel demand is lagging behind, if the performance of the finished material is not as expected, the iron ore market may fluctuate, especially steel mills profits fell, causing a certain suppression of iron ore prices; second, the continuous rise in spot prices, easy to trigger macro-level regulatory attention。

According to Business Monitor, iron ore prices have risen sharply since November 2022, with an overall volatile upward trend, with business iron ore prices at 923 as of February 22, 2023..33 yuan / wet ton。The main reason for the recent sharp rise in iron ore prices is: optimistic expectations of improved downstream terminal demand before and after the Spring Festival, supporting the spot price of iron ore upward, the domestic macro level of good news to stimulate iron ore futures prices significantly stronger, driving the spot price to form a period of resonance phenomenon; at the same time, steel mills iron ore inventories are low, the market is expected to steel mills will have replenishment operations, iron ore strong upward。

Business said that from November last year, with the release of iron ore expected demand fell through, the market turned to optimism about the far month, the far month iron ore prices are relatively stronger, iron ore spreads continue to narrow, the basis spread is also shrinking, the overall trading demand marginal strength。At the end of 2022, the dollar index fell sharply, making speculative funds return to emerging markets, with futures prices continue to speculate for higher, the speculative atmosphere in the domestic iron ore market to pick up, spot prices also continue to rebound with the rise, the formation of the phenomenon of resonance。

After the Spring Festival, the domestic full resumption of work and production, the market for the downstream demand view is more optimistic, the current macro policy is warmer, real estate favorable policy release, economic growth recovery has become one of the main logic of market transactions。As future demand improves and drives steel mills to resume production further, iron ore has a need for replenishment, which in turn supports higher ore prices。

Specific analysis of short-term iron ore price trends:

The key to the current ore price game is whether the macro management department will strengthen the supervision of the recent sharp rise in iron ore prices, especially iron ore futures prices rose sharply, causing concern: on February 17, the big business issued a market risk warning announcement, to strengthen the supervision work; in January, the National Development and Reform Commission also issued a document saying that the recent iron ore rally, there are obvious speculation ingredients, will study to strengthen the supervision of iron ore prices, resolutely crack down。Therefore, some traders in the market are also watching the follow-up situation.。

On the supply side, global iron ore shipments totaled 2,799 as of February 20.10,000 tons, up 477 from the previous month..20,000 tons; total iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Brazil, Australia 2303.20,000 tons, up 452.30,000 tons。Among them, Australia sent 1539 to China.70,000 tons, up 398.60,000 tons。Brazil Shipping Volume 543.10,000 tons, a decrease of 350,000 tons from the previous month.。Overseas shipments are in a phase of cyclical fluctuations。Recently, iron ore prices have risen sharply, stimulating the enthusiasm of overseas miners to ship, with Australian ports have resumed operation, this week, Australian ore shipments have rebounded significantly, Brazil and non-mainstream shipments are relatively stable, iron ore supply to maintain a strong trend。

In terms of inventories, as of February 17, the country's 45 ports had imported iron ore inventories of 14,110.720,000 tons, an increase of 100.440,000 tons; average daily dredging volume of 314.410,000 tons, up 8.960,000 tons; 105 ships in port, 11 fewer than last week。The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills nationwide is 9237.10,000 tons, down 35 percent from the previous week..65 tons。There has been some growth in iron ore inventories after the year and port inventories have been at a high level.。The society fully resumed work, steel mills procurement demand release, logistics situation improved, with the downstream steel demand release trend gradually strengthened, the follow-up port inventory may be downward, short-term still need to pay more attention to port iron ore inventory changes。

On the demand side, as of February 17, steel mills had a blast furnace operating rate of 79.54%, up 1% from last week..12%; blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization 85.75%, an increase of 0.82%; steel mill profitability 35.93%, down 2.6%; average daily molten iron production 230.810,000 tons, up 2.150,000 tons; the current sample steel mill's daily consumption of imported ore is 282.710,000 tons, up 2.570,000 tons。With the full resumption of steel mills after the holiday, steel mills operating rate, capacity utilization and molten iron production has been growing for six consecutive weeks, at this stage steel mills profit margins are still at a low level, although last week's profit fell, but still within the scope of steel mills acceptance。If the late downstream steel demand is not enough to drive the expansion of steel mills' profits, the release of iron ore demand growth will be limited, in the short term because of the low inventory of downstream steel mills, iron ore demand to the good release, the recent need to pay more attention to steel mills' profits。

Scrap steel, scrap steel prices rose slightly recently, strong operation。Steel mill profits have improved, but still at a low level, in the short term steel mill production will not be strong, on-demand procurement-based, but the recent iron ore prices rose, between the production cost considerations, steel mills will tend to electric furnace start, good scrap demand, coupled with the tight scrap resources, businesses are willing to support prices, is expected to maintain a small rise in the scrap market next week, shock upward。